Rat u Siriji, 2011-2015. godina

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Još jedan osvrt iz ugla ruskog analitičara - zašto rusija štiti Asada...

Citat:Russia fears demonstration effects of Syrian uprising
April 25, 2012 by Dmitry Gorenburg

Here’s the full text of my Oxford Analytica brief from January. I posted an abbreviated version earlier, but now can post the whole thing.

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As the uprising in Syria approaches its one-year anniversary, the stand-off between its government and the international community seems set to continue for the foreseeable future. Throughout this period, Russia has been Syria’s foremost protector in the international arena. It has taken on this role because of Syria’s economic significance for the arms export industry, its role as the host of Russia’s only military base outside the former Soviet Union — and concern that a successful mass uprising might have negative consequences for its own political stability.
What next

Russian leaders will use the Syrian crisis as an opportunity to show that their country is still a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East. They will also press their case that overthrow of the current Syrian regime would lead to further instability in the region — which might even spread to parts of the former Soviet Union. As a result, Russia will continue to do its utmost to prevent the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Analysis

Syria is one of the five largest foreign buyers of Russian defence equipment, receiving 6% of all arms exports in 2010 (the most recent full year for which data are available).
In recent years, Syria has received:

2,000 anti-tank missiles for modernised T-72 tanks (delivered between 1999-2005);
200 Igla (SA-18) portable surface-to-air missiles, delivered without portable launchers as a result of US and Israeli pressure — and therefore usable only on ships, helicopters or vehicles (delivered in 2006);
36 Pantsir-S1 mobile air defence systems, armed with 500 SA-19 surface-to-air missiles (delivered between 2008-10);
2 K-300 Bastion coastal defence batteries, armed with Yakhont (SS-N-26) anti-ship missiles (delivered in 2010).

Contracts for future deliveries include:

200 more SA-19s;
additional Igla portable surface-to-air missiles;
2 MiG-31M interceptors, second-hand from the Russian air force;
8 Buk-M2E missile system batteries (worth 1 billion dollars); and
an unknown number of 9M123 Chrysanthemum self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (status uncertain);
36 Yak-130 training aircraft (worth 550 million dollars, announced this month);
modernisation of 24 Syrian MiG-29s to the SMT level;
modernisation of S-125 Pechora-2 surface-to-air missiles; and
modernisation of 200 T-72 tanks, as part of a 500 million dollar contract to upgrade 1,000 tanks, with 800 already completed by end-2010.

The total value of these contracts is around 4 billion dollars; the agreements are critical for some companies’ financial survival. Russian exporters fear that regime change in Syria would lead to the loss of contracts, as new rulers may pursue opportunities to purchase weapons from other countries. They point to Libya as an example of the economic impact of a government overthrow on Russian arms sales. Since the uprising began, Russia has continued to send weapons to Syria, including a shipment of various munitions that came to attention this month after the ship carrying the weapons made an unscheduled stop in Cyprus because of high seas.

Wider interests, higher stakes

In addition to military contracts, Russian companies have other investments in Syria, primarily in natural gas extraction. These are valued at approximately 20 billion dollars and include a pipeline and a liquefied natural gas production facility.

Based on their experience with the new government in Libya, Russian leaders believe that these contracts will be lost if the opposition comes to power in Syria. Even if Russia abandons Assad at this point, they assess that the opposition would not forgive their earlier strong support for his regime. The announcement of a new contract for training aircraft this month, with initial deliveries scheduled for 2013, shows that the Russian government has decided to bank on the survival of the Assad regime. If the regime falls, both this contract and the other unfulfilled contracts for Russian military equipment are almost certain to be cancelled. Russia’s economic interests in Syria can be maintained only if Assad defeats the opposition or there is a negotiated settlement.

The role of Tartus

In the years after the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia gave up all but one of its military facilities outside the territory of the former Soviet Union. The one remaining is the naval logistics facility in Tartus. This is not a true military base, since it does not permanently host any Russian military personnel other than the 50 sailors who staff it. It consists of two floating piers, a floating repair facility, and a supply depot. Its primary purpose is to repair and resupply Russian navy ships transiting the Mediterranean.

Russian leaders are concerned that the fall of the Assad regime may lead to the closure of this facility. While the Syrian opposition has not made any statements regarding the future of Tartus, Russia has long depended entirely on Assad and cannot expect to have good relations with his successors, especially if they come to power by force.

Power projection

The recent visit to Syria by a Russian naval group that included the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier was designed to demonstrate the importance that Russia attaches to its relationship with Syria and its current leadership. While official Russian sources repeatedly stated that this was a routine resupply visit scheduled long ago and had no political connotations, it was almost certainly intended as a political signal. The arrival of the ships was interpreted at home and abroad as a sign that Russia would not tolerate a ‘Libya scenario’ — and was perceived as such by the Syrian government and official media, which trumpeted the arrival of the ships as an indication of Russian support for the Assad regime.

Russian leaders may have actually meant to signal something slightly different: they want to demonstrate that Russia remains a player in the Middle East, and that its positions have to be taken into account. They believe that Assad’s departure will result in Syria either becoming a Turkish ally or descending into long-term chaos and civil war. In either situation, Russia will lose a dependable ally.

Syrian demonstration effects

The authorities in Moscow are also concerned that further successful popular uprisings in the Middle East may lead to demonstration effects in its own neighbourhood — and perhaps even in Russia itself. Initially, the greatest fear was about the possibility of popular uprisings bringing down ‘friendly’ autocrats in Central Asia. However, the recent large demonstrations against the falsification of elections in Russia itself have only increased its leaders’ determination to ensure that no additional ‘dominoes’ fall under popular pressure.

While the ‘Arab awakenings’ have little direct connection to the emergence of protests against Vladimir Putin’s political order, Russian leaders feel that they are surrounded by a tide of anti-incumbent protests — and see each government toppled as potentially feeding the mood throughout the world. A related fear is that the overthrow of the Assad regime may feed a resurgence of anti-government protests in Iran, bringing the region’s political instability even closer to Russia’s borders.

Furthermore, Russian leaders are concerned about the gains made by Islamist forces in the region, and particularly in Egypt. The twin dangers of popular overthrow of local autocrats and the subsequent victory of Islamic parties in elections raise the danger of an Islamist takeover of parts of Central Asia. Such a scenario would likely lead to a significant increase in migration flows from the region to Russia, further destabilising the domestic political situation.

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RJ normalno je da je jedan cilj ono sto si naveo ali i iz geopolitickih interesa i naravno vojnopolitickih interesa Rusija se mora pokazati kao ozbiljan igrac, shvatili su da su debelo popusili sa libijom, izgubili su svoj PONOS i sad moraju da vrate.

• 2Ovo se svidja korisnicima: rzbrzotrz, APM70
  
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Hah, vi imate simpatije bazirano na to ko je bio "zaveznik" SADa u 90im. To je moj dojam. Isto zivim vani, poznajem raznovrsne arape. Licno mislim da su rezimi Ba'atski zlo. Ali su manje zlo, i nuzno zlo. Alternativa je Muslimanska Braca, i razni Quatarski Emiri. Zadnje sto sam cuo "demokrate" u Egiptu ili Libiji zele da legaliziraju nekrofiliju sa pokojnim/om suprugom?

Ti rezimi su losi po pitanju licnih sloboda ako ih poredis sa sta ja znam nordiskim zemljama. Ali vala, i kod nas je bila potrebna crvsta ruka, kada su bili izbori, svi glasali za to da ubiju komsiju...E kod njih je ta mrznja i primitivizam i klerikalizam jedno 100x gori nego sto je bio taj latentni kod nas 90ih. Nije Assad dobar lik, ali njegove alternative su mnogo vece zlo.

• 3Ovo se svidja korisnicima: versus, RJ, rzbrzotrz
  
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Mogu mene smatrati za dvorsku ludu ali vrijeme ce pokazati ko je u pravu. Likovali su ovde i za Sadamom i za Gadafijem... pa su obojica skoncali k'o kerovi od ruku vlastitog naroda uz nesebicnu pomoc naftaskog lobija sa strane... Asad se kofrcio dugo Izraelu, ne lezi ni Turcima, ne lezi nikom osim Rusima i Iranu ali bas rad toga ce i biti uklonjen, samo je pitanje vremena... Jel to u redu, pravedno ili ne, to je irelevantno, sila boga ne moli... To sto ce mozda kasnije Sirija postati zemlja haosa i previranja ne zanima nikoga jer oni koji kroje tu politiku nece tamo zivjeti, znaci veci haos i rasulo - bolje za komsije (Izrael).

• 1Ovo se svidja korisniku: veljko82
  
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Хај'те без етикетирања.

Свако има своје ставове и закључке - не морамо да мислимо исто.

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Kripo,ja te ne smatram dvorskom ludom,ako ti to nešto znači.Moj stav je najbliži stavu našeg "korisničko ime" drugara i tvom.U Sirijskom sukobu nema pravednih,samo dželata i žrtava koji sa vremena na vreme zamene uloge.U geopolitičkoj "igranci" uzaludno je tražiti pravdu,istinu,čovekoljublje.
Spominju se samo u pričama političara koji time maskiraju prave uzroke i motive onoga što rade.
U Siriji je u toku građanski rat i odmeravanje snaga sila tzv.Zapada i Istoka,Sirijce niko ništa ne pita niti će.Slobodu nisu imali i neće je ni imati,imali su kakvu-takvu političku i ekonomsku stabilnost a sada ni to.
-Bilo bi zanimljivo da se neko osvrne na demografsku eksploziju kao "gorivo" arapskog proleća i revolucija uopšte.

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^^
Da su imali relativno modernu medicinu, ali jako velike porodice. I da je srednja kalsa unistila sama sebe demografski, posto su mozda imali po dvoje djece. Dok jedan odredjen sloj stanovnistva sa odredenjim politickim stavovima je imao jako puno djece, a gladni su posto ih je jednostavno previse. Egipat ima 80mil stanovnika?

Bila je neka teorija da je arapsko proljece, radi toga. Da je Evropa "prepuna" teze na sjever, a i kriza ekonomska. Pa sada previse ljudi.

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човјек је лијепо горе објавио текст зашто Руси подржавају Асада,то је само дио приче,као што је дио приче да Америка жели сломљену Сирију јер је вјероватно последња станица пред Иран.свако гледа свој интерес,то је тако увјек било и увјек ће бити..

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Место злочина, Идлиб
http://www.rts.rs/page/stories/ci/story/2/%D0%A1%D.....D0%B1.html

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Bivši novinar Al-Jazeere za libanonski list Assafir: "Tražili su me da lažno izvještavam o stanju u Siriji"



Bivši novinar i korespondent za katarsku TV mrežu Al-Jazeera, Mohammad Hassan, otkrio je kako ga je nadležna administracija kanala tražila da izvijesti o stanju u Siriji koje nije odgovaralo aktualnom stanju na terenu.
U razgovoru za libanonski list Assafir (engleski transkript), Hassan - koji je službeno podnio ostavku 3. travnja, navodi kako je to učinio zbog "neprofesionalnog izvještavanja o događajima u Siriji", ali i o ulozi Rusije na prostoru Bliskog istoka.

Hassan navodi kako je donio konačnu odluku kada su ga zatražili da u emisiji uživo komentira navodnu vijest kako ruske specijalne snage ulaze na teritorij Sirije. Hassan je ustvrdio kako vijest nije pouzdana i kako je nemoguće provjeriti autentičnost informacije samo 15-ak minuta prije početka emitiranja vijesti uživo.
Navodi kako se 20. ožujka "inzistiralo" da u vijestima uživo potvrdi informaciju o dolasku ruskih borbenih jedinica na ruskom brodu koji je trebao uploviti u sirijsku luku Tartous.
Hassan je tada rekao u vijestima kako informacija nije potvrđena i kako se "ruska vanjska politika zasniva na međunarodnom zakonu". Također je naveo kako je Sirija strateški partner Rusije koja u tu zemlju izvozi oružje, no to nije nikakva tajna. Po pitanju broda koji je trebao uploviti u sirijsku luku, Hassan je konstatirao kako je normalno da postoje naoružane jedinice na brodu, no nema nikakvih informacija kako bi se iste mogle iskrcati na kopno.

"Voditelj vijesti me tada prekinuo i rekao kako je informaciju potvrdio Interfax (ruska novinska agencija), što je bila neistina jer sam imao web stranicu agencije Interfax pred sobom i tamo nije bilo nikakve vijesti o iskrcavanju ruskih jedinica na kopno", navodi Mohammad Hassan.

Hassan ističe kako je vijest imala snažne reperkusije i kako je kanal izgubio na reputaciji jer je rusko ministarstvo obrane samo 2 sata nakon objavilo proglas u kojem odbacuju ove tvrdnje. Idući dan u Moskvi je održan sastanak libanonskog i ruskog ministra vanjskih poslova, tom prilikom je Sergej Lavrov izjavio kako je konkretna vijest obična izmišljotina i kako bi oni koji rade u medijskim kućama morali biti odgovorni.

Hassan navodi kako je i sam sirijske nacionalnosti te mu je zbog toga još i više krivo zbog načina na koji al-Jazeera izvještava o situaciji u njegovoj zemlji. Također navodi kako je počeo ozbiljno sumnjati u kredibilitet izvještavanja medijske kuće nakon načina na koji se izvještavalo iz Libije.
Ostavka i javni istup Mohammada Hassana samo je jedan u nizu - više novinara, direktora i izvjestitelja već je podnijelo ostavku u katarskoj medijskoj kući zbog izvještavanja za koje tvrde da nema veze s profesionalnim novinarstvom po kojem je nekoć ta kuća bila prepoznatljiva. Samo nakon Hassanove ostavke stigla su još 4 pisma ostavke - od 2 direktora u Parizu, Riyadh Ziyad Trousha i Majed al-Hjeilana, i 2 korespondenta iz Afganistana - Abu Bakr Younes i Walliallah Shahin.

Ratni reporter Ali Hashem, koji je prije al-Jazeere radio za BBC, također je podnio ostavku, u njegovom slučaju isključivo zbog načina izvještavanja iz Libije i Bahraina. U razgovoru za nezavisni The Real News rekao je kako se u Libiji "forsirala politička agenda, a ne objektivno novinarstvo".


Izvor: advance.hr