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powSrb ::Irbis ::powSrb ::Морате да схватите да Русима нису битни Сиријци и да ли ће Алепо да буде решен за 3 месеца или 3 године.
Мислим битно им је, али битније од тога им је стање у њиховој држави и односи са западом, због тога и ово попуштање и "сарадња".
Nisu im bitni Sirijci,ali su im bitne baze,a one po svemu sudeci vise o koncu jer raspolozenje SAA je ocajno sto nije dobro,a Asad nikada nije bio blizi padu nego sada. SAA skroz demolirasina pricam o dobrovljcima, ne o profesionalnom kadru,za njih jos nemam info. SAD sada vec lako moze naci ljude iz SAA koji ce pokrenuti smenu Asada,i ako se odbrani Asad kako ce se to tek odraziti na ostatak SAA. Nesto slicno moze da se desi kao Ruskoj carevini u WWI. Umesto da brani zemlju moze da se desi da gradjani te iste zabiju noz u ledja.
САА је одличној ситуацији.
Јесте терористи су скупили 5000 људи то су и Руси признали и напали југ Алепа, али на крају САА је очистила околину Дамаска, Латакију и затворила Алепо. За 6 месеци ће терористи поново урадити исто, али ће САА до следећег примирја закорачити у Идлиб проввинцију са свих Страна, а Гута ће вероватно бити решена или при крају.
Русија мора да прави уступке и одржава какве такве односе са западом, јер није у позицији да их тотално откачи и прекине сву сарадњу, превише зависе од запада да би се тако понашали. Што је штета. Да је ситуација другачија, Америка би потписивала примирје у тренунтку када терористи пробијају коридор, али није.
Ево шта пишу Руси на једном форуму.
Citat:1.) Pepe Escobar has already explained that there's been in fighting between the Pentagon and the CIA for basically the past 9 months. The Pentagon wants to exclusively support the Cheesy Kurds, and the CIA wants to exclusively support the Free Sectarian Army in the open (and JAN in private). We've seen similar infighting (with John Kerry involved) during the last cease-fire so this is nothing new, and the biggest achievement of the last cease-fire was that the goatf*ckers managed to rearm and regroup with +8,000 fighters.
2.) Timing is everything. The Minsk treaty happened right after the Debaltsevo Cauldron, which was such a momentum shifter that if it weren't for the Minsk treaty (aka the treaty to save German business interests in Russia) Novo-forces would of likely had Odessa at siege by now. Similarly we finally see a monumental victory in Aleppo and now we have this? Trust me it's not a mere coincidence. Mind you if it weren't for the pitfall in the last cease-fire (which allowed the beardies to replenish themselves with +8,000 fighters), the SAA wouldn't have had so many setbacks in Aleppo. This will ultimately lead to major setbacks for the Syrian military, and everyone will go back to blaming SAA for %100 of everything instead of asking "Why is the Russian side supporting a cease-fire that will ultimately help the enemy rearm and regroup?" For that matter is the SAA at fault for the MINSK treaties failing as well?
...Ultimately I'm not trying to be the new flag-shit-vasectomy, but you guys need to allow some constructive criticism. I brought up the same question last time, and the same people vehemently disagreed with me on the effectiveness of the last cease-fire. We had similar debates about the VKS draw-down as well. Sadly, I was right in both cases (I argued that both will lead to negative outcomes). I'm not blaming VVP, nor Shoigu, nor Bondarev, the Russian State apparatus is more complex than that. The state apparatus is a coalition of Siloviki (VVP) and Neo-liberals (Medvedev), ultimately the failed cease-fires are derived from the Euro-Atlantic business interests in Russia (many like BP, ExxonMobil, Boeing who like to play the 'Good Cop' role) who work through their agents of influence like Kudrin, Potanin, the Gaidar family, Chubais, formely Berezovsky and Khdorkovsky, and most unfortunately through Medvedv. The cease-fires act as the proverbial 'carrots-on-the-stick', as the Russian side tries to preserve any and all of the last vestiges of geo-political cooperation left with the West, with the altruistic goal to prevent future thermonuclear escalation. Alas this will fail, you will not see the lifting of the sanctions (Lavrov believes they'll last for decades), or a restoration of relations....It's too late, the Neo-Cold War will not be prevented. Russian diplomacy will have to stop relying on foreign investment from the Euro-Atlantic business interests and focus on reinvesting in themselves, and not allow any more cease-fires until Raqqa and Odessa are captured respectively.(Али ово тек када ураде ово прво, тек тада могу да размишљају о напредовању и гажењу без последица и потреба за примирјима.)
Још један.
Citat:Citat:At the risk of seeming a hypocrite because of my hardline views against Minsk, I will suggest that while I do not like this stop and start war, that irrespective of the condition of the various anti Assad forces, the SAA itself is not big or strong enough to mount the continuous hard hitting operations required to defeat the enemy in the short term, so every so often, even when the situation seems good, need to stop and repair men and machines. The situation in Syria is not like at Mariupol where while VSN was clearly not the force it is now, and guys were getting tired, ukrops had essentially totaly collapsed and the way to Kherson, let alone Mariupol, was open. Anti Assad forces in Syria are not suffering the bad leadership and morale of ukrops, and fight far better, so SAA need to do this a bite at a time. The only other solutions would be to declare no fly zone over Syria for any non Syrian or VKS aircraft and step up the bombing by considerable degree, and even possibly also need large scale Iranian ground forces to enter. Neither are likely at this time, and as far as heavy Iranian involvement, not even in the future, at least as far as can be guessed because we do not know the "unknown unknowns". But in end result, any "ceasefire" in Syria may have the same smell of shit as Minsk.
slab mi je kvalitet prevoda na google, ali iz tvojih usta u Božije uši. Svi kažu pad morala u SAA, ode Asad, ti suprotno, oraspoložio si me. 
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