Rat u Siriji 2016 - Komentari, diskusije i analize članova

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powSrb ::Како је САА наслагала терористе из ИД ово је невероватно.
Како може да се брани положај када знаш да немаш где да бежиш.
Нападају их сваки месец као лудаци, али само апдају мртви.
Ја стварно не знам колико стотина људи је ИД изгубио до сада у пропалим нападима на Даер Ер Зор, ако не и хиљада.

Nije samo to upitanju Brka odlicno oformio sistem u SAA i NDF tacno se zna komandni lanac,postoji i rezervni ako neko pogine,bude ranjen i slicno jednostavno sve je po PS i tako funkcionise kako treba. Isto je bilo u Latakiji kada su zauzeli Salmu i ostalo,tako je isto u Daara i Damasku,relativno u Palmiri jednostavno gde su uspostavili dobar komandni lanac i gde se zna ko pije i ko placa onda tu nema problema,tamo gde toga nema(citaj Alep) tamo ima ima problema. Specificnost Alepa je i ta sto su tamo najmanje Sirijica(van podrucja oko grada) tamo su raznorazni dobrovoljci,pre svega Iracani,Palesticnci,Siitski dobrovoljci i Iranci,a drugi problem je Iranska vojska koji normalno saradjuju samo za SAA i Hezbolahom i delimicnom sa Iranskim dobrovoljcima i tu dolazi do problema i potpune neorganizovanosti.

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slonic_tonic ::powSrb ::Сада мене занима, како то да Иран има дронове ове врсте, а Русија не?
То ми је тотално невероватно...
I ja sam o tome razmišljao.

Moje objašnjenje za taj fenomen:
Iran puno priča, a pitanje je šta stvarno ima. Pogledajmo samo tu njihovu sjajnu avijaciju. Nevidljivi avioni, presretači 5. generacije, a lete još na starim F14 i F4. Samo izlažu nekakve makete od poliestera.
Sve oni imaju i domaće Shqvalove i S300 domaći još bolji od originalnog (pa zašto su onda toliko cvilili za S300), domaće radare i strašnu mornaricu sa superbrzim čamcima (a zapravo 3 pretpotopne engleske fregate, više korvete od 1000 tona). Da im nisu Koreanci prije par godina dali tehnologiju za dvostupanjske rakete, još bi bili na nivou V2.
Istina je jedino da su kopirali neke prastare američke SAM-ove i TOW (pitanje kako i koliko dobro) i da su "modernizirali" neke stare S200 rakete. I istina da imaju džip na koji su zašerafili bestrzajni top.

Rusi kad nešto objave, onda to i imaju.
(btw. gotovo sam siguran da im je i tehnologija dronova ispred iranske)

Iran je zemlja sa valjda ubjedljivo najmanjim izdvajanjima za vojsku u Persijskom zalivu. Sa druge strane, iako država parija, uspjela je da podmiri svoje prilično veliko stanovništvo i da stabilizuje razvoj. Tako da imaju proizvodnju automobila, kamiona, kombajna, traktora, metala, betona, đubriva i ostalog što takođe traži pare. I to sve posle one, skoro pa decenijske šorke sa Irakom.
Valjda su i usvojili doktrinu po kojoj sa Arapima nikad neće ratovati, odnosno da im za Arape neće trebati neke posebno jake oružane snage dok sa druge strane sa Amerima je sukob izgledan i na njega će ići isključivo asimetrično (i jedino moguće). Valjda ih sami Ameri nazivaju najvećim oružanim snagama na svijetu za asimetrično ratovanje.
Tako da sa ograničenim sredstvima, asimetričnom strategijom i veličinom neprijatelja u obzir dolaze isključivo jeftine, iskopirane, portabl stvari koje se mogu zašarafiti na džipu, poluprikolici ili brzom čamcu i koje na traže skupu i za efikasnu odbranu nemoguću infrastrukuru.
S 200, S 300 pa i neka avijacija vjerujem da im treba više zbog Izraela ako ovaj odluči da malo bombarduje.

Što se tiče iranskih bespilotki koliko ja kontam, njihov razvoj je zasnovan prije svega na grupi školovanih Iranaca, a sve se svodi na raniju ambiciju šahovskog Irana da razvija naoružanje i vojnu opremu mnogo više od bespilotne egzotike. No posle islamske Revolucije od nekog velikog razvoja iranske vojne industrije nije moglo biti ništa jer je Iran ubrzo postao parija. No ako su ostali bez saveznika nisu ostali bez samih sebe, pa su u raljama iransko - iračkog rata iranski stručnjaci razvojem bespilotnih letjelica zasnovanih često na raznoraznim letećim metama i civilnim igračkama pokušali da ispomognu Irancima angažovanim na probijanju iračkih fortafikacija i linija. Osim što se razvoj bespilotki u državi pariji pokazao kao jedini izgledan od svih tehnologija i naoružanja same bespilotke su se dobro pokazale prilikom probijanja linija i upada u iračku pozadinu gdje su iranske jurišnike hranile prijeko potrebnim informacijama i umnogome štedile živote. Tako da je front diktirao brže, jače, bolje, a iranski stručnjaci radili su koliko su mogli i došli do prilično avangradnih projekata.

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U Iransko-irackom ratu koristili su izmedju ostalog izraelske bespilotne. Toliko, posto je OT.

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Umerene,demokratske snage opozicije posle oslobađanja alavitskog sela Zara na jugu Hame

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Šehidno "The Moroccan leader of Harakat Sham Al-Islam, ‘Azzam Al-Mughrabi, and his bodyguard, Bilal Al-Mughrabi, were reportedly killed by a missile strike in northern Latakia on Saturday."


"The 2 French boys that carried out the executions were identified as “Abu Musa’ab” and Abu Qaqa’a. These 2 French boys are allegedly brothers that were brought to the “Caliphate” with their father, who was reportedly killed in battle."

Bome je i ISIL šehidio ponovo u Deir ez Zoru.
"ISIS began the offensive by seizing the Al-Assad Hospital, SyriaTel Hill, Sadkop Oil Factory, Deir Ezzor Cemetery, Fire Brigade Base, and Grain Silos from the Syrian Armed Forces in Deir Ezzor City."
"Following their success at the aforementioned sites, ISIS attempted to capture the Firat University buildings inside Deir Ezzor City; however, this would prove to be a fatal error for the terrorist group as they found themselves spread too thin and susceptible to a Syrian Army counter-attack."
"In a matter of two hours, the Syrian Armed Forces would recover all of the sites they lost, including the Al-Assad Hospital. ISIS’ offensive on Saturday proved costly, as they reportedly lost 40+ combatants during their failed assault in Deir Ezzor City."
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-r.....eir-ezzor/

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Иранске беспилотке су у употреби у Сирији, Венецуели, Судану, Либану и Ирану већ дуже време.

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STA RADE (NE RADE) VISE OVI RUSI?! POCESE I MENE STAROG OPTIMISTU NERVIRATI.

PS. Moze li mi neko s vojno-takticke strane pokusati dati razumno objasnjenje da se smirim???
Na stranu ona geopoliticko-ekonomska objasnjenja o kojima je pisano kao npr. da se Rusima isplati da rat traje (prodaja i reklama oruzja), dogovori ili razmimoilazenja sa Asadom i slicno.

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Napisano: 15 Maj 2016 13:08

Снимци такозване ИД код ДЕЗ, не знам колико оклопа има САА тамо, али сваки пут им униште нешто.
Да ли могу ваздухом да им доставе нешто ако буде критично?

http://pressvideos.xyz/v/tj14052016-720.mp4

http://pressvideos.xyz/v/zr15052016-720.mp4

Dopuna: 15 Maj 2016 13:42

Citat:For me is clear that Russia strategy in Syria is an attrition war on Turkey ,Saudi Arabia and
USA. This means that the major economic burden will be on Turkey ,Americans and Saudis for having to support very large Terrorist army in all Syria. So as long Russia stay in Syria ,even if with a minimal airforce ,artillery and armor force . they can put enough pressure on the terrorist. to make it very costly any progress they make. For example ISIS took control of Al ZARA and in less than 48 hours ,they all wiped. albeit civilians died which was not intended ,at least in the end the terrorist were pushed back.

What is important to know is that the war in Syria will not end ,by capturing IDLIB,Aleppo
and Raqqa and all northen Syria. it will only mean a new war will start. the one of Syria vs Turkey and with American special forces ,logistics ,weapons and drones help.

So in real practice the war will end when Erdogan/Saudis no longer have money to continue financing the war. Or also when no longer Americans can continue hiding their actions and the pressure to stop the illegal war against Syria is too much for them. Already in the white house
journalist put in trouble the white house spokeman about why they are not labelling moderates
who cooperates with Alnusra and do join operations as terrorist. The more americans citizens who are very slow to wake up and realize their Government are on the side on Alqaeda and ISIS. the more difficult will be for Obama to continue the war. So Freezing the conflict (fake cease fire) favors Russia but also Syria. even if civilians die. because allowing Syria to take control of northern Syria when Turkey still wants to continue fighting ,will only provoke a full scale direct war ,between Turkey army and Syria Army ,with turkey army tanks invading Syria, that will pull Russia and can end with nuclear weapons used.

So the strategy is weak and slow but it can work.The Time Russia wins in syria ,can allow Russia
to better prepare to a potential war in another front that americans create like Ukraine for example. or a direct war with US.

All this weak strategy is consequence of Russia being so dependent on Europe trade.
Had Russia had zero dependence in energy trade with Europe ,and a strong economy trading with Asia . it could afforded a full scale war in many fronts and no worries if even have to fight
Turkey directly. War and Economy and public opinion goes hand in hand. you cannot be effective in any war if economy totally collapse and public opinion is very negative. that will
only provoke civil unrest in Russia. Which is the real goal of Americans. To grind Russia in Syria
and kill many Russians there ,and destroy Putin Image ,and Russia economy ,to more easily provoke a revolution.

Americans real goal in Syria is not Assad. Is not even Hezbolah that is only a bonus for israel. their real goal for arming terrorist in Syria is -> Putin and Collapse Russia Economy ,because if Russia economy collapse , and Putin fails in Syria miserably and in Ukraine too,it will significantly damage Putin image but also United Russia party of Medvedev and create the conditions for a revolution and major violence to start in caucasus by muslin seeking to take advantage of Russia bad economic situation. Possibly helping Communist party to take power ,
which will commit the same mistake of soviet union of isolating itself from the world and make very easy for Americans to split Russia Federation as they did with Soviet union.

Always this is important to remember , the real goal of Americans in Syria is not Assad or capturing Syria. but Capturing Russia instead. by destroying Putin and Russia Economy permanently by Isolating it from the world. So this is why Russia Government needs to balance
every thing they do in Syria and Ukraine with the Cost for its economy and the security for its soldiers.

So is 100% about Russia , American policies in the middle east and 0% about Syria.
Neocons says. lets provoke violence in Syria and Ukraine to pull Russia into an endless fight that will crush its economy ,Get as many Russian soldiers killed as possible and destroy Putin and his party popularity ,so that is more easier to provoke civil unrest in Russia and disband it.

So if Russia cease to exist the next week ,and disband in many parts ,becomes moscow landlocked to other independent republics ,and Putin and his party overthrow. Then Obama no longer will need Erdogan and Turkey. And will ask ISIS and Alqaeda to redeploy its armies to Turkey and disband it. and remove Erdogan. This will be done to come as a hero for his European Allies. that are suffering for Turkey sending migrants to Europe. Then will start arming
Ukraine with the best weapons they have to start invading Russia and easily capture it.

So Putin needs to keep really in check its economy/and the security of its soldiers more than anything while helping Syria and rebels in donetsk to hold , if it doesn't want to allow Americans to do what they really want to achieve when they provoke violence in Ukraine and Syria.

Americans war against Syria is real objectives is simply a war on Russia economy and destroy Putin and its United Russia party popularity and support.

So don't be distracted too much by what happens in Syria or Ukraine. Neocons will like the war there to last decades if possible as long is need to collapse Russia economy and Putin and the Russian government support. the front lines can change in any direction over time back and forth ,and the wars in Syria and Ukraine can last a decade. What is more important for Russia is to make strong its economy ,get a solid Public Support for the Russian government and not allow Americans to over run Syria as they did to Lybia ,because that will also damage the support of Putin and Russia Image. Is all about Putin and Russia ,because in the end ,Russian citizens not many will want their government to start a major war with NATO in defense of a any country in middle east. So Putin does not have full support to risk even the security of Russia and its economy in defense of syria. If it was Armenia or Serbia or Belarus,
kazakistan ,or even Crimea ,is a different story. Not many Russians will sacrifice their quality of life and live in poverty ,for a war in defense of country in middle east. they dont identify or feel connected.

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Drug Platov ::STA RADE (NE RADE) VISE OVI RUSI?! POCESE I MENE STAROG OPTIMISTU NERVIRATI.

PS. Moze li mi neko s vojno-takticke strane pokusati dati razumno objasnjenje da se smirim???
Na stranu ona geopoliticko-ekonomska objasnjenja o kojima je pisano kao npr. da se Rusima isplati da rat traje (prodaja i reklama oruzja), dogovori ili razmimoilazenja sa Asadom i slicno.
Moje lično mišljenje je da su Rusi dobili sve što su hteli i da ih boli uvo za rat u Siriji. Dobili su baze na mediteranu, good boy sliku u svetu, isprobali su naoružanje i pokazali su mišiće u smislu da mogu da ratuju na dva fronta.