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Options narrowing for Erdogan after Idlib strikes
Ezzedine SAID
AFPFebruary 28, 2020, 6:37 PM GMT+1
Whichever way he looks in Syria, the walls seem to be closing in on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
A bombardment Thursday by President Bashar al-Assad's Syrian forces killed 33 Turkish soldiers, Ankara's biggest single loss of personnel by far since it launched its intervention in Syria in 2016.
Erdogan's response was rapid and deadly, with drone and artillery strikes killing 20 Syrians. But it did little to reverse the balance of power which lies heavily in favour of Damascus and its Russian allies.
Unable to count on significant Western support, any decision by Erdogan to dig his heels into a long-term Syrian conflict is fraught with danger, both militarily and politically.
"Turkey has neither the military means nor the human resources to continue the ongoing escalation in Idlib," said Jana Jabbour, Turkey expert at Sciences Po University in Paris.
In addition to the military aspect, Erdogan must also take into account public opinion at home which, according to Jabbour, "risks turning against him if the number of Turkish soldiers killed in Syria increases."
In an attempt to pull in European Union support after Thursday's attack, Erdogan played the refugee card.
Ankara, which has 3.6 million Syrian refugees, announced it would no longer stop migrants seeking to travel to Europe.
With European politics now littered with anti-immigrant rhetoric, this prospect raises the possibility of a virulent backlash, similar to 2015 when over a million people fled to the continent -- the worst refugee crisis since the Second World War.
"The threat to open the borders with Europe to migrants is a very effective way of putting pressure on the EU, for whom an additional flow of refugees represents a nightmare scenario," said Jabbour.
The recent escalation in Idlib, the last stronghold of pro-Turkish rebels and jihadists in northwestern Syria, has shattered the 2018 Ankara-Moscow deal intended to prevent a regime offensive.
While Damascus pushes ahead with its assault, the accord between Turkey and Russia -- aimed at stopping the fighting in Syria despite their diverging interests -- has taken a heavy hit.
- 'No palatable options' -
Turkey's requests for support and assistance from its NATO allies appear to have fallen flat.
After demanding the deployment of US Patriot air defence systems -- so far to no avail -- Turkey called on the international community on Friday to set up a no-fly zone in northwestern Syria to prevent Russian and Syrian planes carrying out air strikes.
NATO's ruling council responded by holding urgent talks under Article 4 of the alliance's charter under which any member can request talks if they believe their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" is threatened.
After the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said allies had agreed to maintain measures already in place to bolster Turkey's air defences.
But he gave no hint of new steps beyond a general pledge to see what more could be done.
"But allies are constantly looking into what more they can do to provide further support for Turkey," said Stoltenberg.
Sinan Ulgen, of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said Turkey was unlikely to get NATO military support, especially since it felt shunned when Ankara moved closer to Moscow and bought Russia's S-400 air defence system.
Ulgen said that Ankara has "no palatable options" in Syria, stressing that Thursday's strikes demonstrated the "vulnerability" of Turkey's position because of lack of air superiority.
"Turkish troops in Syria will continue to be exposed to the type of air strikes we saw yesterday," said Ulgen who believes that Erdogan may be forced to settle on the basis of the Russian plan to allocate "a smaller zone of control" to Ankara.
Turkish troops and the nearly one million displaced would then be squeezed near the Turkish border.
- Short-term outcomes -
While there is pressure on Ankara to respond to the regime, Gonul Tol, of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, believes Russia will not allow strikes that are "too strong".
"At this point I don't really see a way out for Turkey," he said.
While Tol suggests there could be a pocket of territory for the displaced, this would be "a short-term solution" since the objectives of Russia and Turkey are irreconcilable.
"Erdogan faces extremely difficult choices and has no options that do not involve major risks," Yezid Sayigh, researcher at Carnegie Middle East Centre, told AFP.
"He cannot simply not respond to direct regime attacks, but must be careful not to over-escalate."
Sayigh senses that although the escalation is "dramatic", it "probably remains a high-risk negotiation tactic," from which a new Russia-Turkey deal will be formed on Idlib.
"In brief, I don't think there will be an all-out war," Sayigh says. "Nor will Turkey be pushed back closer towards NATO."
Either way, Erdogan is losing room to manoeuvre.
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