Specijalna vojna operacija u Ukrajini, 2024. komentari

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Da li je ovo do sada najveci napad Ukra dronovima od pocetka sukoba ? Moglo bi se raditi o 100ak kom

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Да би се добило приближна цена СВО треба видети разлику између војног буџета рецимо из 2021. и 2024. а и то није баш прецизан показатељ јер је Русија повећала трошкове за војску која не учествује у СВО повећавањем бројног стања и додатним набавкама технике која неће бити ангажована у Украјини.

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Gargantua ::ODAB 1500, usporeno.
Piropatrone?

Naravno kolega. 'Prava ruska poslastica'. Nema tu nikakve 'eksplozije' već je u pitanju piropatron i to obični, sa mehaničkim inicijalizacijom, koji oslobađa bravice skupljenih krilaca. Inače, samo odbacivanje bombi sa nosača vrši se pomoću elektropiropatrona.

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The pattern of recent Ukrainian drone attacks in the Russian interior has convinced me they're coming from third countries. Let's investigate.⬇️
Rybar attempted a weak debunk on this on the occasion of a drone attack earlier this week that struck an industrial park in Tatarstan. The attack accomplished very little (it hit worker housing for a Russian luxury automobile manufacturer and injured a few people), but far more interesting was its location - some 1200 kilometers from Ukraine but just over the border from Kazakhstan - and the means used, general aviation aircraft stuffed with explosives.
The people at Rybar would have us believe these drone aircraft somehow flew all the way across European Russia, through the densest and most effective air defense network in the history of war, to arrive on the Kazakh border without anyone so much as noticing. I submit that this is ridiculous. The Ukrainians try to launch drones across the front line constantly, and they are without exception detected and shot down quickly by air defenses. Around this time last year, a couple bold Ukrainian pilots actually tried to fly this exact model of light aircraft into Russia to do a bombing attack, and they were shot down and arrested almost immediately.

Let's look at Rybar's map and see if we can figure out what's actually going on. It's immediately apparent from looking at the map and doing some simple geographical sorting that the Ukrainian drone campaign has fallen into five distinct clusters: the border region, the Baltics, the Russian interior, the east Black Sea, and Crimea. Of these the border cluster and Crimea are relatively uninteresting, Ukrainian attacks in those areas are frequent and can obviously be launched from Ukrainian controlled territory with small, expendable drones that can slip through air defenses with small size and sheer numbers. However - and this is a key point - the Russians have that airspace locked down. Even those small drones are largely destroyed by air defenses prior to reaching targets.

The East Black Sea cluster is thornier because the Ukrainians do not routinely attack the Novorossiysk region despite ample reason to do so (it's a major Russian fleet base and logistics hub), suggesting they cannot range it from Odessa with their usual drones. This makes logical sense, accounting for a dogleg out into the Black Sea to avoid Crimea it's about three times farther than a flight into Sevastopol. This suggests that drone attacks in that region aren't actually laboring all the way across the Black Sea from Ukraine but rather were launched from more convenient sites in eastern Turkey (NATO member) or Georgia (heavily penetrated by NATO interests)
Now we move to the Baltic cluster, noting as we do that there have been no attacks between southern Bryansk Oblast and Estonia. If the Ukrainians were launching drones north they would presumably have hit a number of targets in northern Bryansk, Smolensk, Kaluga, Tver, and Pskov before finally landing shots in St. Petersburg. This hasn't happened, suggesting very strongly that the Baltic cluster of attacks originated either from Estonia, Finland, ships at sea in the Baltic, or some combination of the three. The Russians maintain strong air defense coverage in this area, but some of the targets have literally been on the waterfront and they have a very limited buffer for air defense work in what is supposedly a peacetime frontier.
Now to the Interior attack cluster, by far the largest geographically. All of these strikes required large drones to traverse hundreds of kilometers of the Russian interior to reach their targets. Such drones would have been easy prey for air defenses in the war zone had they tried to cross the front line, again strongly suggesting a non-Ukrainian origin. In this case Kazakhstan is the logical launch point, some of the strikes (in Tatarstan and Volgograd) have occurred close to the Kazakh border - which is long and not heavily defended. Kazakhstan is a large country whose opposition has extensive links to Western interests and whose government has attempted to maintain a neutralist stance in the conflict. Smuggling drones into Kazakhstan and flying them off across the border with the authorities none the wiser would be fairly easy.
A drone attack that occurred in Morozov in Rostov Oblast today proves this thesis, I believe. The Ukrainians attacked the Russian air base there with forty-plus drones - an enormous raid that could not have passed over the front line unnoticed, let alone unengaged, to appear over a major VKS airfield. This suggests a launch from Kazakhstan. The Russians are fortunate in that what was clearly a long-planned attack was directed at a heavily defended airbase and not a soft target elsewhere where it could have caused serious damage. In the event, Russian air defenses seem to have had a turkey shoot.
A final note on the real impact of these raids, which has caused some hang-wringing among the usual suspects in the Russian commentariat. Most of these attacks have been directed at Russian oil and gas infrastructure and have been ineffectual, either failing entirely or starting small fires. Ukrainian propaganda has, however, promoted them out of all proportion to their actual effects, causing global oil prices to rise. The price of Ural crude has risen 20% since the start of the year. As such these attacks have paid off their actual repair costs dozens of times over, and Putin's been laughing all the way to the (sanctioned) bank - rather strongly suggesting a reason the Russian authorities don't seem to have been in any hurry to address them!
Now, why would the Russian authorities - and Rybar is heavily connected to the Russian government - want to maintain the fiction that these attacks are all coming out of Ukraine? For the stuff coming out of NATO, it's all been well below the threshold of escalation and they have no reason to retaliate out of theater at this time. Potential attacks out of Kazakhstan are more concerning, but at the end of the day the Kazakhs are friends of Russia and this activity would not be occurring with their government's consent - the Russians and Kazakhs both would much prefer to have this quietly locked down.
The Ukrainians have obvious incentives to keep from stirring up a firestorm with the more responsible members of NATO or enraging the Kazakh government by bragging about what's actually going on, and they're happy to claim their drones are just that good instead.
* For brevity's sake I have omitted an argument about drones being flown off from within Russia itself - they would need to be brought in from third countries regardless and in any event some of these drones have been quite large and not the kind of thing one could just walk through customs with.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1776121221882736946

Za baltičke pacove mi teško da poverujem, ali za Kazahstan me ništa više ne čudi, davno sam pisao da po okončanju rata Rusija mora da pometla sve postojeće vlasti -stana.

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slonic_tonic ::
zato što zahtijeva daleko najmanje energije.
svakako nije razlog izbjegavanje elektronike, jer u svakom slučaju je jednaka količina elektronike, tj. računalo će dati signal za otvaranje krila, jedino je pitanje šta će se s tim signalom odraditi.
struja za aktivaciju el. detonatora je zanemariva, sve ostalo trošilo bi puno više.

ako si primjetio, za razliku od američkog JDAM-a, kod kojeg se mijenja cijeli rep i u kojem ima puno praznog prostora, kod UMPK kita samo se dodaje ovaj plosnati dio s krilima i u njemu se nalazi i napajanje i kompjuter i dva servo motora za upravljanje elevonima. Nema baš puno mjesta za dodavanje nepotrebnih sistema i velikog akumulatora. Po meni dosta bolje rješenje nego JDAM-ER.
Kad se govori o struji i baterijama za ovo sokocalo ,valjalo bi dodati da odavno koriste hemijski proces a ne kao sto vecina prvo pomisli neki akomulator ili neke litujumske dopunjive baterije.Sve zbog skladistenja koje moze duzi period da bude bez kontrole kao i sigurnijeg resenja od obicne baterije.Opisali su to lijepo par puta ovdje na forumu kako to funkcinonise na raketama i kako se one napajaju.

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Da li ima nekih potvrda da su ukrajinski dronovi pogodili nešto?

• 1Ovo se svidja korisniku: ladro
  
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Sačekaj par dana, obavezno će postaviti sat. snimke ako bude nešto. Možda ih neko postavi i ako ne bude ništa sem neke "šupe", znalo se i to desiti.

• 1Ovo se svidja korisniku: zoran MKD
  
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Kako Vojvoda i društvo na Tg tvrde da nisu ništa pogodili osim trafoa od aerodroma ja bih im verovao, verovatno stativa za Ukre.
Meni i dalje nije najjasnije kako nadlete tolike stotine km ruske teritorije i da ih niko ne obara usput.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Битка за Часов Јар: пробој Оружаних снага Русије у микроокруг Канал
стање на дан 08.00 05.04.2024

У правцу Бахмута , руске трупе развијају офанзиву у правцу Часова Јара . Према прелиминарним информацијама, ваздушно-десантне јединице успеле су да дођу до предграђа канала Северски Донец - Донбас кроз тракту Ступки .

Касније су се појавиле информације да су Оружане снаге Русије стигле до периферије микроокруга Канал: војници 98. ваздушно-десантне дивизије ушли су у предграђе насеља кроз шуму са стране аутопута О0506 и пробили одбрану украјинских формација у ово подручје.

🔻Снимци објективне контроле од стране непријатеља потврђују чињеницу напада руских трупа и њиховог ангажовања на периферији микроокруга у улици Зеленаја. А узимајући у обзир чињеницу да медијски ресурси Оружаних снага Украјине обично објављују материјале који су сами себи исплативији, права промоција Оружаних снага РФ може бити још већа.




Pustite dronove, vidju napretka

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Gargantua ::ODAB 1500, usporeno.





ODAB-500 je u pitanju, neko je ili slucajno ili namerno napisao 1500. Na fotkama potkacenih ispod krila se po dimenzijama moze videti da nije 1500.
Takodje Su-34 ne moze da nosi 4 bombe od 1500kg, maksimum je 3 (jedna ispod trupa), a u praksi nosi maksimum 2.