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- Pridružio: 23 Jul 2012
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Evo odličan članak koji objašnjava sunovrat ekonomije u Ukrajini i nagovještava način na koji Rusija planira staviti pod kontrolu ostatak zemlje. Prosto rečeno SAD i EU nemaju para da finansiraju Ukrajinu a Rusi imaju. To bi otprilike bilo to!
Eugene Pozhidaev Ukraine without the Crimea: the economic apocalypse is near
Collage: a REGNUMCollage: a REGNUM
Kiev regime was in a difficult position. Last week finally became clear that the army at Ukraine in essence, no. If the local military elite could boast at least Latino appearance, the linear parts look frankly incompetent and demonstrate unwillingness to fight; premobilization activities are clearly not shaky or rolls; oboronka debts army before which reached almost a billion hryvnia, refuses to repair equipment. Military assistance is requested by the United States Kyiv, until reduced to supplying dry rations.
Authorities hastily formed twenty thousand National Guard, the backbone of which with almost 100% probability constitute Adventure "Freedom" and other relatively controlled nationalists, for these purposes is scheduled to spend an additional 6.8 billion hryvnia (about $ 700 million) within three months.
Naturally, this puts additional strain on an already tight budget, but hyperactivity Yatsenuk administration has completely transparent subtext - Ukrainian economy prospects look even worse than expected by the most hardened skeptics. So, the country is quite obviously on the verge of a gas war with Russia. By the beginning of the Crimean events in Ukraine's gas debt has reached $ 1.89 billion, and continued to grow. Even at the reduced price of $ 286 per 1,000 cubic meters of gold reserves in Ukraine monthly evaporated to $ 1.5 billion in April, however the discount is no longer valid, and " Gazprom "proceeds to supply prepaid. Worse, the Crimean crisis creates a formal occasion for the revision of the Kharkov agreements providing Kiev about a $ 100 discount. Thus, theoretically, the price for Ukraine could reach about $ 500. Thus already at $ 400 per 1,000 cubic meters of payments deficit will grow almost a third - about $ 20 billion, far exceeding the 10% of GDP, which itself looks like a total disaster. The prospect that Kiev would not pay, are viewed quite clearly.
In April and May expire and payment terms for the book earlier in Russian nuclear fuel, which the Russian Federation is largely a supply fears.
In this case the "energy" debt - just the tip of the iceberg Ukrainian debt. Ukrainian private business in financial terms is even worse than the state - in recent years he had "evolved" through the recruitment and expensive short-term debt. As a result, only in this fiscal year "private owners" will have to pay $ 34.8 billion - often unprofitable for Ukrainian business astronomical figure. Meanwhile, the financial assets of Ukrainian top large scale only in Ukraine - so "brilliant" idea Brzezinski, who proposed a oligarchs collect a billion for economic recovery, the reality is quite absurd. Top ten Ukrainian business reality formless and empty - only really serious condition Akhmetov. Ukraine moves shaft corporate defaults, which will be exacerbated by political instability and the expected effects of the gas war.
State of the banking system is not less peculiar - it should relatively little, but was weak even before the crisis, and not stand in the course 10.5-11 hryvnia for one dollar. Meanwhile, none of the potential donor does not allow Kiev burn gold reserves, saving clearly unrealistic rate.
Desperate leap Ukrainian oligarchs to power largely explained by this - it's banal attempt to solve their problems at the expense of the state, which used to play an honorable role of the merchant sovereignty in exchange for cheap money. However, the political crisis is largely further aggravated their situation. They have nowhere to retreat - behind offshore accounts and alert the FBI already slowly starting to punish lack of enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, east and south now less submissive - even before Ukraine loomed economic "perfect storm". Hopes for the Marshall Plan (massive Western aid) are not justified. Thus, direct aid from the U.S. $ 1.150 billion was limited, with 1 billion - it's not real money, and debt guarantees. EU assistance is also limited - for the impressive figure of $ 11 billion in fact hiding vague promises to give money "later," and if possible, long-term and all the same "non-living money."
As a result, probably in Kiev decided to move to the traditional African way of forming semi-guerrilla detachments of marginals and youth. At the same time create a truly combat-ready units administration Turchinova not succeed - but as a punitive can be used and the explicit rabble.
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The problem is that convulsive throwing Ukrainian authorities create more economic problems, which have recently been hard to imagine. While the Ukrainian army burns fuel in meaningless forced marches, and refineries are idle, there is growing evidence that the rumors about the successful seeding greatly exaggerated, despite vigorous statement of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Commodity prices for grains and sunflower oil, one of the key producers of which is Ukraine, grew explosively. At the main players have well-founded doubts about the stability of the supply - so the ministry has already appealed to the Ministry of Energy with a request to sell 10,000 tons of fuel at a discounted price, while judging by the tone of the requests and reservations about the alternative sources is no assurance that sufficient stocks of petroleum products , no.
In other words, in this situation banal default and a sharp decline in living standards look more optimistic scenario. In reality, by the end of 2014 the picture may be much darker - until food shortages in major cities, mass disconnection of heat and electricity and the rest of the typical signs of a revolutionary situation.
Eugene Pozhidaev - international observer a REGNUM
Подробности: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1779239.html#ixzz2wUnOw5vD
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Link: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1779239.html
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