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- Pridružio: 21 Maj 2008
- Poruke: 15227
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Једна анализа тренутног стања и како би сукоби могли да се наставе:
Оригинал (на руском)
http://alex-leshy.livejournal.com/182475.html
Превод на енглески (хвала Амвас  )
Тренутна мапа:
Citat:To date, the Ukrainian forces, relatively is divided into nine major areas of deployment.
Zone A: around 3,100 personnel, up to 50 tanks, 180 light armored vehicles, up to 100 mortars, up to 100 (taking into account the removing from the frontline units would likely be somewhat less) self-propelled and towed guns of all calibres, ~80 multiple rocket launchers. Three complete battalions of territorial defense ("Tchernigov", "Kharkiv", "Nikolayev") are deployed there and one company of territorial battalion "Ajdar", two battalion tactical groups (BTG) (one of the 1st Tank Bde, one of the 80 Aeromobile Brigade), two battalions (at least) of the 55th Artillery Brigade, one battalion of the National Guard. Currently the group is "responsible" for the entire northern face of the frontline total length of about 100 kilometers and up to 60 - 70 kilometers in depth, from Schastje to Starobelsk.
Zone B: 2200 officers and soldiers, up to 90 tanks (probably less two companies recently were moved somewhere. Arrived in their place 28 tanks were most likely not remain in that place, and were relocated to other areas), 120 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles , about 100 mortars, up to 80 guns of all types, 30 MLRS. Area of responsibility: Borovskoe - Sirotino - south-eastern edge of the agglomeration Severodonetsk - Lisichansk - Vrubovka and further to Popasnaya. The length of the front line - about 50 - 60 kilometers. Two recently redeployed battalion tactical groups are located here. Judging by the number of armored vehicles, most likely from the mechanized brigades. Territorial battalions "Sich" and "Nikolaev". Battalion of the National Guard.
Zone C: 3600 officers and soldiers, 150 tanks, 250 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 200 mortars, 130 towed and self-propelled guns, 120 MLRS. It consists of six territorial battalions ("Kiev-2", "Kiev-11", 25th Battalion of territorial defense, "Donbass", "Kievskaya Rus’", the 42nd battalion of territorial defense) and one company of the territorial battallion "Ajdar", two recently arrived battalion tactical groups (one mechanized, one, apparently, from the 2nd Operational Brigade of the National Guard). This is one of the largest and most heavily armed, at this moment, groups of the Ukrainian army. It is concentrated in fairly compact area Popasnaya - Trinity - Debaltsevo - Uglegorsk - Svetlodarsk - eastern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk. The length of the contact line of troops - up to 50 kilometers.
Zone D: up to 3,000 personnel and about 100 tanks, up to 300 (taking into account arrivals over the past 24 hours), light armored vehicles, 80 mortars, 200 guns, up to 200 MLRS. The group includes: 3 Battalion Tactical Groups (one of 1st Tank Bde, two ones unidentified arrived in the last 72 hours), two complete territorial battalions ("Artemovsk", "Shakhtersk"), one company of "Ajdar", battalion of the National Guard, battalion of the "Right Sector." Area of rResponsibility Dzerzhinsk - Yenakievo - Avdiyivka. The length of the front line - up to 70 kilometers.
Zone E: up to 1,600 personnel, about 20 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, 30 mortars, 100 guns, 20 MLRS. It consists of one of the BTG of the 93rd Mech. Bde a fresh BTG (motorized infantry, arrived 90 hours ago), National Guard battalion, and the "Right Sector" battalion. The length of the front line is not large - up to 40 kilometers from Avdeyevka to Alenovka. And actually having to hold the position of only two highways M04 and N15. The space between them is unsuitable for large-scale offensive of. This was tested by Ukrainian military on their own skin in May - June, when they tried to attack, and militia held the positions.
Zone F: 3000 manpower, 100 tanks, 200 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 150 mortars, 140 guns, 100 MLRS. Includes: two companies of territorial battalion "Shakhtersk". Artillery Group of the 23rd Art. Bde, battalion of the "right sector", two fresh battalion tactical groups (motorized infantry or the National Guard, which is essentially almost the same), three tank company tactical groups. Concentrated most compactly. The length of the front line 12 - 15 kilometers between Volnovaha and Novotroitskoe.
Zone G: 3200 manpower, 50 tanks, 150 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 120 mortars, 140 guns, 70 MLRS. The second largest group of Ukrainian forces in the battleground. To date, the Ukrainian forces included complete newly created 1st operational brigade of the National Guard, four territorial battalions ("Khortytsa", "Vinnitsa", "Azov", "Kharkov-1") up to two companies of territorial battalion "Donbass", battalion tactical group of the 79th Airmobile Brigade, a company of marines, a battalion of the "Right sector," battalion (actually just reinforced consolidated company) the State Border Service of Ukraine. Area of responsibility - the defense of the city of Mariupol. Is considered to be in the encirclement, but in fact a continuous front the Donetsk army has only the east and north before it. The western direction, along the highway to Berdyansk, in general, is permeable for protected convoys. That just allowed Kiev for three days to increase a town garrison almost three times the original.
As a separate zone (Zone H) should be considered two still not abandoned pockets of Ukrainian forces in the rear of the Lugansk militia. First - surrounded group of the 25th Airmobile Brigade. Second - blocked in Belorechinsky at least reinforced company tactical group of the 30th Mechanised Brigade. Nominally, they are a few days in the encirclement. But in fact, almost no loss suffered, as all this time they didn’t either repel serious attacks or stay under impact of artillery of militia. So the equipment is saved. Maybe only have difficulties with the fuel, as well as some problems with ammunition and food supplies. If the offensive of the Ukrainian army would pass through their areas the encircled personnel can easily compensate their own losses. In addition, this group is very largely holding on the available reserves of Lugansk militia with which is already having a positive impact on the overall tactical situation as a whole.
Strictly speaking, in the rear of Novorussia exists two more pockets. Remains of a tank battalion tactical group "sitting" for almost two weeks in the area of Zhdanovka, and two motorized infantry companies for nearly a month are southwest Djakovo. However, they hardly can be taken into account. Paratroopers are too far away from any operating lines, immobilized and do not represent any significant value without assistance. Tank men are just too small amount of. In the best case, up to 200 manpower having 10 - 15 tanks, are unlikely capable to move independently to date. Ammunition they probably still have, but at the expense of the desire to fight actively - very serious doubts. That’s why these forces will not be considered in the subsequent calculations.
Separate area (Zone J) should be considered Izyum - Borovaja area, which is currently being fortifying a fixed defensive line to which the withdrawing troops from all over the left riverside of the Seversky Donets are redeploying. The entire group recently escaped from the Lugansk airport territory also was redeployed there. The decision to give up control of the left riverside is done in time and relevant to current situation. To guarantee keeping this area from operations of the raid and sabotage groups of Lugansk militia is impossible. At least having in mind the size of reserves available to the Ukrainian Staff. At the same time, due to the withdrawal of troops Command of the Ukrainian army could gather from nothing: 2000 manpower, 30 tanks, 100 BMP / BTR, 60 mortars, 50 guns, 40 MLRS. One battalion tactical group of the 1st Tank Brigade (reinforced after losses in the fighting in July - August), battalion tactical group of the 80th Airmobile Brigade (also got reinforcement), a battalion of the "Right Sector", a battalion of the National Guard, special destination units (from the 3rd Special Destination Regiment).
Total: 18000 soldiers and officers only in the "front line". In the rear there are up to 3 - 4 thousands. Man in "Slavyansk" fortified region. Plus units, occupying "Krasnoarmejsk fortified region". Plus quite a large number of territorial battalions of the Internal Affairs Ministry, formed from the police staff. They have no real combat strength, but can carry out patrolling missions in the rears, ensuring adherence combat zone rules, protection and defense of rear checkpoints in 'quiet'. That allows to not distract more efficient units for those tasks.
They are opposed by armed forces of Donetsk and Lugansk republics, now concentrated in six major areas. The latter is important for the understanding of the events taking place there and their development in the near future.
Area - 1, includes major, even almost all of the forces of the Lugansk army. Up to 5,000 people, up to 30 tanks and 90 armored vehicles of different types, about 100 mortars, 50 guns of all types, 16 MLRS. Is responsible for the defense of the entire northern edge of the frontline and elimination of surrounded Ukrainian groups around Lugansk, as well as for the "security" of the Russian-Ukrainian border and maintaining of all border crossing checkpoints and the contact line of the LNR and Russian Federation. In this area offensive against Metallist and Schastje are taking place, which flowed approach to the Novojdar. The rate at which pockets are annihilating, demonstrates the limitations of Lugansk army.
Area - 2 is a "zone of responsibility" of brigade “Prizrak” ("Ghost") under the command of Alexei Mozgovoi. Controlled area: the right riverside of the Seversky Donets from Slavyanoserbsk to Sirotino further until Pervomajsk and possibly Irmino. The length of the front line - about 90 kilometers. The brigade consists of 2000 personnel, 8 - 10 tanks, 50 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 30 mortars, 30 guns, up to 10 MLRS.
Area - 3 is one of the weak points of the frontline. The area having up to 35 kilometers length from Irmino to Faschevka is controlled by “The Great Don Cossack Army” under the command of Ataman Kozitsyn. Up to 800 manpower, 2 - 3 tanks, up to 15 armored vehicles, and up to 20 mortars. I do not want to say anything bad about them, but I should note, for the past five months of the war, for three times they could not stand massive strike of mechanized units of the Ukrainian army, and retreated.
Area - 4, place the most stubborn defense - Gorlovka - Yenakievo. Area of responsibility of Igor Bezler’s brigade (call sign "Bes"). Two months carrying out stubborn defensive fights. The length of the front line - 90 kilometers. Up to 2000 personnel, no tanks, up to 25 armored vehicles, 40 mortars, and at least 10 guns.
Area – 5. Area of Responsibility of the Donetsk army. Despite the relatively short section of the formal line of contact, about 100 - 120 km, in fact it is controlling almost the entire territory of the People's Republic of Donetsk on line Yenakievo – Krasnyi Luch - Djakovo - Amvrosievka - Starobeshevo - Yelenovka. Consists of 14 000 personnel, 12 - 15 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, 80 mortars, 16 guns, up to 10 MLRS.
Area – 6. Group "blocking" Mariupol. Contains all the most capable and well armed units of DNR. About 6000 manpower, 28 tanks, 90 armored vehicles, 60 mortars, 60 guns, 20 MLRS. Despite the presented large number of troops, more than 2500 men are forced to be used for garrison service in the towns around Mariupol, and monitoring of two key highways connecting Mariupol with Donetsk. Including important transport hub in the settlement Telmanovo, defense of Volnovakha and blocking of a pocket southwest Styla.
The current disposition of the sides suggests several obvious conclusions. The current ceasefire is fragile and does not suit both sides. Because of this, it will only persist until the end of the rearrangement of the Ukrainian army. Given replacement of casualties obtained in the third wave of mobilization, the total number of Ukrainian forces again brought to 55 - 60 thousands manpower. 20 - 30 thousands out of them -in the first line. The total number of militia in both Republics is estimated at 29 - 30 thousands. But not in the first line, but entire. This means that the advantage in manpower of Kiev forces fell down to two-times and continues to decline. Thus, it needs to attack until the forces are not caught up in numbers. Results of the past battles have shown that the militia greatly exceeds the Ukrainian forces in the total combat effectiveness with equal strength of units. The advantage in motivation, initiative and a better quality of command affects. So Kiev has no special options. If it doesn’t attack now, it attack never.
In its turn, the militia is also in difficult operational situation. Significant in size and equipment group of forces, consisting of the most mobile and experienced units are situated near Mariupol actually in the corner formed by the coastline of the Azov Sea and the Russian-Ukrainian border. They have almost no space for maneuver due to specifics of the terrain and features of the topology of the local road network. Moreover, it is a hundred kilometers from the main base area - Donetsk - and actually hangs on a single supply line - Highway Donetsk - Novoazovsk. The parallel road H20 Donetsk - Mariupol forty kilometers west is actually the front edge of the front line in many places, and the area Volnovaha - Novotroitskoe (or even almost before the exit to Dokuchaievsk) all intercepted by the Ukrainian troops. There is a zone of deployment of the strike group of Ukrainian troops (Zone F), which cannot be considered the H20 road as a supply lines, even in theory. Hence, there is a marked similarity to the "southern claw", defeated by rebels in July. Now in a mirror image.
A careful comparison of the forces concentrated by the Ukrainian command in different parts of the front shows that it learnt some positive experience from past defeats and no longer trying to be strong everywhere at the same time. Of the nine zones, one is compelled to ambush regiment - Zone H. One - Zone J, - can only be regarded as a strategic reserve. Four zones (A, B, E, G) are purely defensive in nature. June fights showed that Donetsk can be taken from Kurakhovo side only at the cost of unacceptable losses in time, manpower and equipment for Ukrainian forces. It's like beating by a forehead against the concrete wall. In turn, the topography here is such that allows you to defend the right flank of the "Krasnoarmejsk fortified region" with relatively small forces. Around the same purpose has the Zone B. Its goal is to prevent a breakthrough of militia into Syeverodonetsk – Lisicansk agglomeration with followed exit along the right riverside of the Seversky Donets to Krasny Liman and Svyatogorsk bypassing Slavyansk - Kramatorsk fortified region. The position is also quite stable, as is actually reduced to the defense of a single highway. In terms of the number of defensive military groups here even more superfluous, that can consider one of its battalion tactical groups as a tactical reserve for the relief of possible threats in Zone A, or as operational reserve to exploit success in Zone C. Mission of Zone A - to hold the offensive of the entire Lugansk army, holding on it in fights and block the possibility of maneuver by its forces and armed groups and to prevent its advance to the left riverside of the Seversky Donets. It should be recognized that this group manages quite successfully with its missions. Shchastje is held firmly. Militia attacks are repelled in the suburbs, located on the right riverside. The Lugansk army can’t cross the river. None near Slavyansk (AMVAS – probably Slavyanoserbsk correct) nor east, in the Luganskaya. The same applies to the entire length of the right bank of the Seversky Donets River in the direction of right up Lisichansk.
We should also individually consider the Zone G - defensive area of Mariupol. Nominally, it is surrounded. In fact, strong and almost continuous position of Donetsk troops are located just to the east and north. To be more precise - just to the east. The north side is more represented by individual militia garrison occupying settlements. Garrisons are of course toothed and providing resistance, but do not consider their positions analogue of the Brest Fortress, which are needed to fight to the last drop of blood. From the west, along the highway to Berdyansk, the Donetsk army represented by only a few advanced patrols in key towns, but not entrenched in them. Except perhaps Mangush where there is a kind of front line having 2 - 3 km length. The highway itself is passable for junta. At least convoys of supply and fresh reserves from Berdyansk to Mariupol come without much loss. Individual-automatic machine-gun fire on the route for convoys unpleasant, but not fatal. Thus, the Mariupol group is sufficient to organize a sustainable defense of the city and even equal in forces and means, offensive capabilities Area 6 of the Donetsk army. 3200 Ukrainian manpower, compared to about 3500 manpower of the Area 6 (taking in mind providing forces for the operational enveloping of Mariupol and control of supply lines). Which allows its usage as an anvil on which it is possible to flatten the enemy by external blows.
Actually, it’s just what the headquarters of ATO intends to do, judging by the created "in an open field" powerful (more than 3000 personnel, about 100 tanks, 200 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, lots of guns, mortars, and MLRS) with a tiny, just 15 kilometers length of frontline in Volnovakha area. Zone F is the shock and the shock only. For anything else, it is simply not needed. Topography and contours of the road network here are as follows, that line from Volnovakha actually to Mariupol cannot be defended at all. Anyway DNR forces can advance in the western direction only across Berdyansk, where a fortified line with concrete pillboxes is building now. The second direction through Rozovka is closed by the local garrison with no less securely. So Zone F defending nothing. While in terms of offensive it has a very broad perspectives.
If in general, is very similar, Kiev generals realized that they can’t eat all entire Novorussia at once. They must try to smash it in pieces. Despite the clearly weaker militarily LNR, primarily Donetsk should be to eliminated. The road network contributes to this. Fall of Donetsk is likely lead to fall of overall Novorussia as Lugansk alone obviously can’t stand against junta. It can be done only in one way. First surrounding and eliminating troops in Area 6. Most likely – by operative technique, known as the "hammer and anvil".
Anvil will be Mariupol. Its strength is sufficient to provide a strong defense. And even if Donetsk forces would be able to break through, the 6000 soldiers in an area of 284 square kilometers and a population of half a million people would just lost. With all their tanks, guns and multiple rocket launchers. Entering the city can only be secured by the rears, but not under the blows of the hammer the other groups. At the same time, the withdrawal of these troops back to Donetsk is only possible along one line, the highway Donetsk - Novoazovsk, which is already under severe pressure from Ukrainian units.
The fact that they are relatively easy to intercept it, according to three facts. The first - the recent raid of the Ukrainian armored group into Telmanovo. Of course, the misleading role played the ceasefire. However, it is recognized that even without this one it would certainly took the settlement. Whether then managed to keep - is a separate issue. But that took - there are no two ways can. The second - the continuing "swim" of the pocket near Styla. When any plans of ATO Command, it is inevitably on the road of offensive. Therefore there are 200 - 350 people, i.e. consider a battalion automatically included in the upcoming group and strengthens it, bringing its strength up to 3.5 thousand persons. In almost complete operational voids currently observed between areas 5 and 6, Hammer of Zone F undoubtedly overturns the position of the Donetsk army near Volnovakha, goes on the road and T0512 through Granitnoye, guaranteed to take Telmanovo. Now the road bridge across the river Kalmius in Granitnoye is blown. But the Ukrainian army has repeatedly demonstrated the adequacy of training of engineer battalions. At least the Seversky Donets it crossed successfully a month ago.
Telmanovo loss puts the whole group of the Area 6 on the brink of destruction and forces it to the quickest retreat with fights. Even if success, this means large loss in the most combat-ready, and the most combat valuable troops. Plus the loss of majority of the accumulated heavy weapons. In any case, the blockade of Mariupol, even operative, is removed, which immediately makes the whole group G from the defensive zone to the offensive. With all the consequences, negative for the DNR. The clever decision for the whole group of the Area 6 now would be redeploying to Donetsk, but it is impossible for political reasons.
In any scenario in the south, the General Staff of DNR Armed Forces will have to create urgently a solid defense through Mospino - Amvrosievka. At least until the end of the withdrawal of troops from the Area 6. As a maximum - to ensure holding Telmanovo, Styla and the entire route Donetsk - Novoazovsk. In general, Donetsk has such forces. But this is not all threats, conceived by the Ukrainian General Staff . Absolutely clear perspective decisive offensive strikes of junta forces from zones D and C. Without having to defend Amvrosievka district, Donetsk army can repel them, even with the loss, but it can. But the question if the power is enough when it is necessary to help the Area 6 - becomes a serious issue.
In the area of Gorlovka Ukraine has three main options. The most simple and obvious - converging attacks on Yenakievo finally cut brigade of Bezler and fully tighten it in the city. If the enemy succeed, it will have no other choice but to leave Gorlovka and break "to the mainland." Likely to Donetsk. The creation "front line" by its forces to the southeast Yenakievo not considered. There are no necessary conditions for this and in the open field artillery of Ukrainian will destroy it pretty quickly. Furthermore, since there are still remnants of a tank battalion stands. If one supply convoy breaks through to them, they will regain their mobility and begin active operational actions that make this new "front line" useless and unstable. Thus, the fall Gorlovka leads not only to political and media success, but also creates hole in the total frontline of Novorussia having 30 km width along the most weak line of interaction between armies of DNR and LNR. Kirov District - Zhdanovka – Nizhnyaa Krynka becomes "unowned". Thereby forming operational space almost to Zugres and Hartsizsk. War doesn’t like emptiness. DNR was not going to take Mariupol, but emptiness sucked already 6 thousand of Donetsk soldiers to the shore of the Azov. The same will happen inevitably to this void. The Ukrainian mechanized infantry has all the chances to reach Hartsizsk from the north at a time when a large part of the reserves of the Area 5 will repel attacks at line Mospino - Amvrosievka. Moreover, the threat is there, even without a complete environment Gorlovka. That creates a second variant of the offensive out of three.
The third option is the blow against Thorez from Debaltsevo. In general, it looks adventurous, if not to take into account the following circumstances. Bezler is not a threat for Zone C. Only individual small sabotage groups, which is quite tolerable. Operations of "Ghost" brigade of Alexei Mozgovoi holding up with fights easily enough by groups of troops in zones A and B. The Cossacks most likely will not stay the frontal impact of tanks and mechanized infantry. This opens up at least two directions for offensive action.
Firstly, the support to strike of zone D against Torez. Task quite doable and, most worryingly, in the current configuration of forces - attainable. Prize, if successful, is a complete operational and, more importantly, the tactical environment of Donetsk. With guaranteed cutting of all lines of its supply. And, in this case, the Ukrainian side will be not much to fear de-block strikes from LNR forces. Lugansk militia simply does not have sufficient power for this. Surrounded Donetsk doesn’t not even needed to be fully assaulted. Without supply it will stand for 5 - 7 weeks maximum. With the onset of autumn slush and the subsequent winter colds a monstrous humanitarian disaster will happen. Its population will inevitably leave the town.
Secondly, after overpassing of the Cossacks the junta troops appears tempting possibility of liquidation not only them, but also the entire area - 2 by cleave blow along the M04 highway, through Alchevsk across Metallist and further to Shchastje. Along the way of the offensive both surrounded groups in Zone H returned into operative turnover, which immediately "expands the width of the offensive corridor" to 15 - 20 kilometers to the southeast. Whichever way the army of Lugansk will react, at least for three - four days to the south-west of Lugansk happens another gaping operational void. And in modern warfare three days - a very long time, for which you can manage to mess all sorts of things.
Thus, to sum total the Ukrainian army has a high chances of success of the offensive on a strategic scale. Adjusted for local conditions of course. An analogy with the Great Patriotic War comes to mind. After winter counteroffensive near Moscow, the Red Army again was forced to set in defense, while the Wehrmacht, accumulated reserves, holds a spring-summer offensive in the Ukraine and in the end comes to Stalingrad and the Caucasus. War, in the end, the Germans lost later, but the Red Army took three long years of total war and the titanic exertion of all its powers.
I think professional staff employees of Novorussia understand much better than me all the foregoing. In addition, they also possess much more complete and much more accurate information regarding the composition, strength and disposition of enemy forces. Because they have the appropriate countermeasures are taken. Novorussia has managed to win the Strategic Defensive Battle having much worse as the original balance of forces. This allows to express the hope that this time it also can stand.
Even more so - the third great battle will not occur. If the attack of Ukrainian forces succeed, the final liquidation of Novorussia would be only a matter of time. And quite short time. Any free gas supplies from Russia of course shall not be. As well as no electricity and heat. And food, in general, too.
If Novorossia succeed counterstrike repelling of Ukrainian counter-blow, in any case, before the frost and snow, i.e. until November, the war will stop by itself. After this defeat Kiev have nothing to put in the first line. And will be nothing to compensate the loss of heavy weapons. Even with the supply of young European countries. The question will be reduced only to the organization of any defense in the neighboring areas of the DNR and the LNR. And the rains in the Ukraine, in circumstances where war is being waged primarily on paved roads, it's a hell of hell. I repeatedly visited the Kirovograd region during autumn slush. I've seen sinking in the mud along the axis of KAMAZ in the 70th years of the twentieth century. In such circumstances, absolutely exactly neither the army Novorossia nor Ukrainians can fight.
And with the onset of cold weather will arise a lot of other problems. Both sides will suffer from significant increase of noncombat losses (sick, frostbitten and even frozen). Supplies of the army in the winter - a separate, very serious problem. Novorussia is ready for winter, but can’t hear anything about similar preparations for the Ukrainian army. Something certainly is, but it is doubtful whether these measures are sufficient for the group of 50 thousand manpower strength.
Hence, in case of a victory in the upcoming battle of Novorussia, everything stops until the spring. For the development of an offensive against Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and / or Kharkov, militia has no forces now, and they will be even less then, after the victory in the upcoming battle with the junta. Thus, in the spring, will affect not only the purely military, but purely economic factors. Whether at the time of drying of the land after the spring thaw and the end of thaw, Kiev has money on the army and people willing to serve in it - would be a very, very big question.
But to know the answer, it is necessary to survive in the coming battle.
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