How President Trump Will Change America’s Military and Foreign Policy
Citat:
US Military Expansion
Although Trump’s plans for the US military have been largely anecdotal, it's clear that he will look to expand the size of each branch with a focus on increasing combat capacity above anything else. This is thought to include the expansion of the Army from 480,000 to 540,000 soldiers. Trump’s surrogates have also stated that the USMC will be increased as well, from around 180,000 Marines today to over 200,000.
Trump will seek to increase the US Navy’s fleet size to about 350 ships from around 300 today. A focus on increasing the number of high-end surface combatants is likely, including upgrading and redeploying Ticonderoga class cruisers that have been sidelined for financial reasons. Even the Zumwalt class destroyer has a chance of being put back into production, and the three ships that have been ordered could potentially be upgraded to better represent their originally intended configuration. Naval missile defense capabilities will also be a major funding focus going forward, and increased fast attack submarine production is also likely to be pushed by Trump’s administration. Whether the Navy will maintain an all-nuclear fast attack submarine force remains unclear.
As for the Air Force, Trump has stated that we need more fighter aircraft – though some numbers his team have thrown out don’t add up. Nor have there been any details regarding how unmanned systems will fit into an expanded tactical air fleet. Still, it's likely Trump will try to expand the service’s number of fighter squadrons. This will not necessarily mean more F-35 buys. In fact, Trump has floated cancelling the program during the race, and this mention was among the only comments made about the fate of specific weapon system. Currently, the USAF brass is desperately wanting to add personnel, and this will likely be included in Trump’s overall defense plan when it materialises.
Above all else, it is clear that Trump will push for rapid modernization of America’s nuclear arsenal. Although Trump’s understanding of the Nuclear Triad is highly questionable, he has made no signs that he wants to cut off a leg to save money. As such, his defense plan will likely bolster key weapon system programs such as the B-21 Raider, an Ohio class submarine replacement, next generation nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and proposed modernization and/or replacement of America’s land-based ballistic missiles. Ballistic missile defense has also been floated as an area where Trump will invest deeply. Though the Navy will likely be the focus of this mission on a theatre level, Trump may push to enhance America’s ICBM defenses located on US territory as well. America’s cyber warfare capabilities have also been mentioned as an area that Trump wants to focus more dollars and manpower on, as well as hardening the homeland to future cyber attacks.
With increases in end strength across the board, this will mean the purchase of more weapons and equipment. Paired with Trump’s comments that we need to “rebuild the military,” and expand our combat capabilities, such an effort will cost massive sums of money – and it is not exactly clear where these funds will come from. So far it is clear he will move to roll back sequester through the end of a two term Presidency, and seeing he has a Republican congress behind him, this will likely happen.
Yet at the same time Trump also says that he wants to tackle the national debt. This would likely become a focus later in his administration, after a rash of debt-heavy spending. Paired with lowering taxes, and claims that he will basically rebuild America’s infrastructure – not to mention keeping entitlements largely in pace as they are—the money to accomplish President-elect Trump's gols and not drastically accelerate America’s already massive $20+ trillion debt will ride on the hope that America can reach economic growth levels not realized for decades. If this growth is not achieved, all the plans above—and many more for that matter—could very well come crashing down later in his tenure.
Factor all this in and it's likely that once Trump gets into office and realizes the costs associated with procuring new military hardware, he will look toward older, and even mothballed weapon systems to help bolster his larger force size goals. Reagan did exactly the same thing after taking office. This means aircraft like the A-10 could be safe from the budgetary axe, while other 4th generation fighters could be upgraded—with some that are currently sitting in the boneyard once again pressed to service. The same can be said for the equipment of every service.
Even if Trump comes through with just a portion of his promises on defense, major defense contractors – some of which have been hit hard by sequester – stand to gain. “Big time.” Yet even though the pie may increase in size significantly under Trump, expect DoD contracts to become much more volatile. An industry forced to eat cost overruns and suffer the outright cancellation of systems that don't perform as promised will be more likely. Also prepare for an attempt at reforming the way the Pentagon spends money – including identifying and eliminating waste and fraud. Even restrictions on Pentagon officials moving to lobbying, or key industry roles shortly after leaving their posts may be put in place.
Citat:Alliances
Maybe the biggest unknown and inherent risk in a Trump Administration is where he will take America’s most cherished and strategically important alliances. NATO, in particular, faces significant challenges since the reawakening of the Russian bear – and any form of instability within the alliance weakens it dramatically.
This is precisely why words matter. Trump has hinted at backing out of NATO if it is not reformed, and if partner countries do not pay their fair share. That fair share is currently defined as a country dedicating 2% of GDP to their defense capability, a goal which many members don't meet, even after the Obama’s Administration’s prodding. Under President Trump this number could increase, and there may reach a point where an ultimatum in thrown down for partner countries to “pay or else.” We simply don’t know how this will play out – but it's clear that Trump sees the US as the chief subsidizer of Europe’s security, and wants "big league" change.
Will Trump be a pragmatic and strong leader who modernizes NATO and shifts some of its economic burden off the US, or will he be the inadvertent architect of its demise? We'll have to wait and see.
Other key alliances, especially those in Asia, are also entering into uncharted territory under President-elect Trump. He has questioned our presence in South Korea and Japan, and even suggested the idea that both countries arm themselves with nuclear weapons so that the US doesn’t have to risk or invest in defending them. Some may view this as frank and overdue talk that needs to happen. The US has been in South Korea for 60 years, and in Japan for even longer. Both nations are comparatively wealthy, and have their own modern defense forces. Yet our long held position is that the threats we face in Asia, and around the world, are best confronted with a strong presence and partners. Once again the question is, will Trump push the hard issues and change the region for the better, or will he destroy military alliances that took the outcome of wars to build?
There is also the question of how Trump’s foreign economic policy will impact his defense policy abroad. If trade wars are sparked, they could ignite real military conflicts in the regions they affect.
Asia in particular is volatile to such policy shifts – China being the elephant in the room. It is possible that Trump, the self-proclaimed best deal maker around, could bargain with China not just on trade, but also on strategic trade offs. Maybe President Trump would turn a blind eye to China’s extra territorial ambitions in the South China Sea in exchange for Beijing playing hardball with North Korea in an attempt to reign in dictator Kim Jong Un and his nuclear and missile programs.
Trump has said he is willing to inject himself directly into negotiations with leader Kim Jong Un, while at the same time he's said that getting China to put a tight leash on Pyongyang will be the key to change on the Korean Peninsula. With this in mind, Trump knows China is going to want something in exchange. It's this very give and take – sprinkled with moral ambiguity – that will likely be a hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy.
Also expect Trump to immediately attempt to reinvigorate relationships that deteriorated under the Obama Administration – especially those that have to do with fighting terrorism. Expect an embrace of countries like Egypt – a long time ally that the Obama Administration turned away from following the el Sisi government's seizure of power from the Muslim Brotherhood by way of a coup. The military-backed regime takes a very hard line against terrorism, and has entered Moscow’s orbit following the breakdown in ties with the US. While not an ideal partner for Obama, Trump might find good company in Egypt, and will likely reestablish deep political and military ties there alongside Russia.
Trump’s firebrand style and a more inward looking and independent foreign policy may even help the deteriorating relationship between the US and The Philippines. The longtime American ally has begun to turn away from the US and towards China under the leadership of the very outspoken Rodrigo Duterte, a leader who also wants to plot a more individualistic path for his country.
Above all else, expect Trump’s foreign policy to be far less righteous than Obama’s, prioritizing a country’s ability to help fight terrorism or value as a trading partner over the human and democratic rights they offer their people. Not just that, but expect a much more solitary, “go it alone” international strategy. And that brings us to…
Citat:Iran
Trump has consistently maligned the Iranian nuclear deal, calling it “the worst deal of its kind, ever.” Will this mean that he will rip it up once in office? Debatable; as the alternative could mean war in a region that is already embroiled in conflict. Not just that, but much of the damage has already been done in regards to what the US has given up in return for Iran putting their nuclear program on a decade-long hiatus. Still, Trump purports to be a strong supporter of Israel, and will enter the office with expectations of a hard line towards Iran.
The vast majority of Iran’s nuclear material has been moved to Russia, as outlined by the deal. Meanwhile Russia has become much closer with Iran, and the two view each other as strategic partners in the region to some degree. But to Russia, a cozy relationship with Washington is worth far more than one with Iran. As such, it's possible that Trump works a deal with Russia to play ball with the US on Iran if, say, the US plays ball with Russia on Syria. This could include slapping sanctions back on Iran (the international nature of the original agreement would make doing so complicated) or limiting Iranian access to conventional arms from Russia.
Trump could also impose unilateral sanctions on Iran, and proceed with arming Sunni gulf states to the teeth with conventional weapons. Meanwhile he can tell the international partners who signed the Iranian deal that they can stick to it if they want. So long as Russia does not return Iran’s nuclear material, there will be time before the Iranians can reconstitute their program to the point where breakout capability is imminent.
In general, instead of reaching out diplomatically to Iran, Trump will likely rely on threats of conventional and cyber attack if Iran does not bend to Washington’s will. Trump will inherit a large and potent arsenal of cyber weapons particularly tailored to attacking Iran, and it's likely they will be used if Trump thinks he needs to check Tehran. In the end, relations between the US and Iran will almost certainly degrade significantly under a Trump administration – and tensions in Persian Gulf are likely to rise significantly while the odds of a major war in the region will also increase.
За оне који не знају и куну се у извор светске демократије
Један од чланака у коме је то лепо објашњено,па зато и објавих...
Citat:Džerimandering je proces crtanja političkih granica s ciljem da svojoj partiji obezbedite brojčanu prednost u odnosu na protivnika
To je u najkraćem definicija političkog procesa koji je po svim moralnim standardima nemoralan i nepravedan, ali ga Ustav SAD dozvoljava.
Pošto smo prekrajanje izbornih jedinica pominjali pre izbora da se malo podučimo. Izgleda smo u toj priči bili samo delimično obavešteni. Prenosim poruku sa jednog bloga.
"Ako ne znaš o čemu se radi, pitaj, nemoj da pričaš napamet. Nema tu "znala" ili ne, granice okruga za glasanje određuju lokalne vlasti - i to, pajz, sada, samo kada se radi i cenzus.
A cenzus se radi na svakih 10 godina, i pogodi kada je prošli bio ;>
Elem, republikaci su imali čoveka - pure genius, koji je kada je Obama osvojio vlast, sve "uložiO" na to da se pare skupljaju i daju za lokalne izbore na strateškim lokacijama. Znači nema potrebe da se igraju sa olovkama tamo di su jaki, nego upravo tamo gde je Obama oduvao.
I to su i uradili, osvojili vlast u lokalu u brjnim opštinama ulažući velike novce u malecke "trke", i onda su izvadili olovčicu i krenuli da crtaju i brišu ;>
NB - A ko ne prati fabulu priče, da se doda i to da je Obama planirao da posle isteka mandata krene upravo u taj "posao", tj. ne da leškari otvra biblioteke i ide po svetu držeći preavanja, nego da formira demokratski tim za ono isto gore pomenuto, tako da spremni dočekaju sledeći cenzus, pa da onda oni crtkaju ;>
Inače to igranje sa grnaicama okruga, to manje više za rpedsedničke, nego je bitno za osvajanje Senata i Kongresa - što se lepo dalo videti na sastavima prošlih a i ovih.
Za samu predsedničku trku je nebitno - jer se glasovi osvajaju na nivou cele države bez obzira ko je u kojoj opštini. "
Ako je ovo tačno a niko osporio nije, ispada da su mediji zapravo pravili pometnju u vezi sa ovim izborima a da to ni nema veze sa njima. Ima veze da li će ti ukaz proći kasnije kad si predsednik ali ne sa samim izborima.
Kako su nas mediji zaveli delimičnom informacijom i nepotpunim činjenicama.
ПС:па кога занима могао је да прогугла детаљније...овај текст је само усмеравање ...ни ово се није знало...ово је чисто о систему самих извизника демократије...са две партије...
...медији нас стално замајавају за све ништа ново ...зато живео нет...
Иначе сада су и били државно локални избора(конгрес на сваке 2 године,а сенат на 6 уз око трећину сада) наравно уз председничке...и ми се још жалимо на наше тамо су стално избори направише они посао и по од тога...
Мислим да и у тексту пише за дистрикте...локалну власт
Иначе ако се још не зна према цензусу се одређује и величина дистрикте и број конгрсмена по држави као и електора који бирају председника плус вашингтон...
Gama ::
U doglednoj budućnosti neće me iznenaditi vest da je Tramp zapravo Srbin. Kladim se da će se tu javiti i neki "politikolog" u stilu Deretića da izvede etimologiju: od srpske reči Kramp nastalo je ime Tramp.
Ово је глупост...па није од крамп...већ од ''трампа''-трговина...његови су и били трговци ваљда кад се доселише тамо из ''старог света'' видите да је Србенда...доведите га у Шумадију и има да прави са Томом ''трамповачу''
...превише озбиљно схватате разне наслове и изјаве више је ту сарказма и како рече колега српског ината Клинтоновој...него озбиље...и ипак има промена...наравно нема промена у најачим играчима на лобистичким сценама или како волимо да кажемо онима из сенка...али да има промена у разним гарнитурама и кликама...има...па око Клинтоновке су баш биле одређене клике које су баш биле део њихове ''екипе'' и фондације итд...и здушно само њу подржавале као и гарнитуре одређених кругова људи то нико не може да порекне...а у људској природи је да сада неки други хоће главни део колача...измириће се они,али ће имати непобитно мањи утицај...ми се само надамо да нећемо ми поново бити на тапети...
У осталом као што рекоше...коначно је право лице амера изашло напоље...па немогу више да се крију иза црног председниа који је само и изабран да би они имали високо морално мишљење о себи самима...а и Трамп је сада доста слабији...јер ће га уве добар део мрзети тј баш мрзети и у самој САД,па је и маневарски простор мањи...и у спољној и у унутрашњој политици...тј оних иза њега сада...
Citat:"Ako SAD napadnu Asada može da dođe do sukoba s Rusijom"
SAD bi mogle da dođu u sukob sa Rusijom ukoliko napadnu sirijskog predsednika Bašara Asada, izjavio je novoizabrani američki predsednik Donald Tramp.
Ukoliko Sjedinjene Američke Države napadnu Asada „moglo bi da dođe do sukoba sa Rusijom i Sirijom“, rekao je Tramp u intervjuu za „Volstrit džurnal“.
„Moj stav je bio, vi se borite protiv Sirije, Sirija se bori DAEŠ-a, a morate da se oslobodite DAEŠ-a. Rusija je sada saveznik Sirije, a imate i Iran koji postaje moćan zbog nas, a koji je saveznik Sirije… Mi podržavamo pobunjenike protiv Sirije, a nemamo pojma ko su ti ljudi“, dodao je on.
Tokom svoje predizborne kampanje Tramp je izjavio da aktuelni predsednik Sirije Bašar el Asad nije idealan sirijski lider, ali nekoliko opozicionih grupa, koje bi mogle da dođu na vlast posle njegove ostavke, mogle bi da budu i gore.
On je dodao da će njegov prioritet u Siriji biti da eliminiše džihadističku grupu ID, a ne da ukloni Asada sa vlasti.
Citat:Ако неко на овом свету има право да се радује промени система у свету онда је то Србија. Све остале унесрећене земље које сам набројао су настрадале у разним периодима овог картела. Једино Србија страда непрестано већ 26 година.
Стевица Деђански: Да ли ћемо се поново правити да се није ништа десило?
kljift ::
I na kraju, Trampom se pravi otklon od uzvišenog zapadnog sosajeti modela koje se vrlo uspješno izvještilo u nametanju njihove subkulture koja se pokazala više nego štetnom.
Ako se bjelačka snaga u Americi kao i dalje dominantna izjasnila protiv migranata, protiv obojenih manjina na socijalnoj pomoći, protiv gašenja radnih mjesta u proizvodnji, protiv "međunarodnih intervencija", protiv seksualnih manjina, ondak će i bjelosvjetskim Soroševcima biti dobrano skraćene nogice u njihovom poslu rasturanja sopstvene nacije iznutra. Ako je i od Trampa - malo li je.
Cijela poenta price "Zato mi je toplo oko srca zbog pobjede Trampa" u par recenica.
Gama ::kljift ::
Dobro sad, ne sabiraj babe i žabe. Problem sa Klintonkom je ko da je ispala iz španske serije. Ko da ju je pravila Televisa presenta. Tako su predstavljali i Obamu kad se uspinjao na vlast prije 8 godina. Novi (crni) Đizus. A on isti Buš samo drugo (obojeno) pakovanje.
Problem sa Obamom, a kasnije i Klintonkom je što se nameću svijetu kao neka uzvišena, elokventna vrednota, kao neko ko ima pravo da "oslobađa" pošto te sruši.
Sa druge strane, kad Tramp bude bombardovao mirne duše ćemo reći da se radi o siledžiji i neznalici koja ne zna ništa drugo i koja nikom dobro ne misli. Posle svih tih američkih na ranu da ih staviš demokrata i predsjednika jedno nepatvoreno i ignorantsko zlo u Bijeloj kući biće zaista veliko olakšanje.
I na kraju, Trampom se pravi otklon od uzvišenog zapadnog sosajeti modela koje se vrlo uspješno izvještilo u nametanju njihove subkulture koja se pokazala više nego štetnom.
Ako se bjelačka snaga u Americi kao i dalje dominantna izjasnila protiv migranata, protiv obojenih manjina na socijalnoj pomoći, protiv gašenja radnih mjesta u proizvodnji, protiv "međunarodnih intervencija", protiv seksualnih manjina, ondak će i bjelosvjetskim Soroševcima biti dobrano skraćene nogice u njihovom poslu rasturanja sopstvene nacije iznutra. Ako je i od Trampa - malo li je.
Što se Srbije tiče, jedan na internetu eksponirani ekonomista tvrdi da je Trampa u jednom od njegovih finansijskih brodoloma spasio neki tamošnji Srbin. To ne znači da će Tramp potpisati kapitulaciju ali kanal je otvoren. To mi iskreno mnogo bolje zvuči od Klintonove fondacije koja je em zapušena svim tim luzerima koji se tiskaju tamo, em se plašim da dobri Bil varaka one "ljude" uzimajući im pare za koktel i mjesto za astalom bez neke šanse za neki politički zgoditak, barem za većinu prisutnih.
Problem sa Trampom je taj što nije ispao iz španske serije već je ispao iz rijaliti šoua. Ono što svaki normalan čovek pljuje.
Ovo da li se Obama i Kilntonova nameću svetu treba staviti u kontekst imperijalnih apetita. Nisu se samo Ameri nametali, već i Rusi, Francuzi, Britanci, Osmanlije, Austrijanci, Nemci i drugi... Nije to "boljka" karakteristična za Amere već za sve imperije koje žele da dominiraju na ovim prostorima. Budi siguran, s istorijskog aspekta, niko nije ovde dolazio da brani pravdu i međunarodno pravo već da jaše ovaj narod - I Rus, i Englez, Amerikanac, Osmanlija, Švaba i dr.
To što su u nas emocije bitnije od interesa naroda, pa žmurimo na neke greške, dovelo nas je do ovoga gde smo danas.
Veliš "kanal je otvoren". Kanal je uvek otvoren, samo što u američko-srpskim odnosima ne mogu Amerikanci da se bore za Srbiju i da stalno popuštaju već naši moraju sami da se nategnu (pitanje je da li oni to žele i da li imaju volje) i da vide gde mogu da prođu, a gde ne... Iskustvo iz devedesetih govori da smo lupali kontru, nismo hteli da se savijamo, te smo zato i bili na tapetu.
Tramp pravi otklon od "uzvišenog zapadnog sosajeti modela" ? Da li si ti slušao njegov pobednički govor? Šta je on rekao tada?
8:40 - Renewing the American dream
11:11 - America will no longer settle for anything less than the best.
11:39 - I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America's interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.
U nas postoji jedna izreka: "Još se Petko nije rodio, a oni seli pa mu kapu kroje". Poruka: da mi prvo vidimo kako će Tramp da se ponaša prema nama, pa tek onda ćemo da lepimo postere i da slavimo izbore.
Tramp protiv seksualnih manjina? Pa njega su pojedini mediji proglasili da je najveći pro-LGBTQ predsednički kandidat. U njegovom poslu tj. finansijskoj imperiji, najbliži saradnici su LGBTQ orijentacije.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSVLpzGseXw (pogledaj ceo snimak mada ono što ti treba je od 2:1.
Slažem se da je on imao nekoliko izjava protiv ovih, međutim, ovo je samo dokaz da se u kampanji priča jedno, a sprovodi drugo. Zbog toga, trebamo da budemo na oprezu jer je "Obećanje, ludom radovanje" (kako govori naš narod), mi sami moramo da se borimo da nama bude dobro, a ne da sedimo i slušamo obećanja stranca.
Kad smo kod veza Srba i Trampa, do sada je bilo:
-Tramp se izvinio Srbima zbog 1999. godine - lažan intervju
-Tramp je mogao da bude srpski zet i gle čuda, Karićev - nismo imali sreće, puklo je.
-Baba Milka čuvala Trampovu decu, Tramp krka sarme kao mećava, briše lonac, pije šljivovicu (in english we call it "plum brandy")...
-Srbin spasio Trampovu imperiju
-Srbi (u stvari Ameri srpskog porekla, koji najverovatnije ne znaju reč srpskog) u Trampovoj administraciji...
U doglednoj budućnosti neće me iznenaditi vest da je Tramp zapravo Srbin. Kladim se da će se tu javiti i neki "politikolog" u stilu Deretića da izvede etimologiju: od srpske reči Kramp nastalo je ime Tramp.
Eyes Wide Shut ::
Da smo zaboravili - nismo. Upravo obrnuto; prisecanje na te tragicne dogadjaje iz tog perioda je zapravo uzrok nasem sadasnjem radovanju zbog poraza jednog od arhitekti tih dogadjaja i naseg velikog krvnika.
Sjajno, reci to ovima u Kuriru što su štampali poster "Trampe, Srbine". Ili onima što su organizovali koktel u čast pobede Trampa. Taj koktel sam mogao da očekujem samo u ovim pacifističkim organizacijama, kod ove Milićke što se živcira kad vidi Lazanskog i još neke političke partije (da ne nabrajam sad, kršio bih pravila). Mada kod njih ne bi bilo veselja jer su oni preferirali drugu opciju.
Da vidm kod nekih ljudi, običnih? Nisam mogao ni da sanjam.
Dođe dan, da se Srbi vesele američkim izborima više nego našim ili ruskim.
Da se prebacim na istorijsko polje (pošto sam studirao istoriju diplomatskih odnosa Jugoslavije): Koliko koktela je, od 1878. do danas, običan stanovnik Srbije priredio u čast američkog predsednika?
U naletu euforije i izborne groznice, možda bi trebalo da se ugledamo na južne susede koji su slavili Klintona: da dignemo jedan spomenik Trampu, da nazovemo ulicu po njemu ili da promenimo ime nekog naselja (npr. Paraćin da preimenujemo u Trampovo)... da osiguramo podršku dok je vreme.
virked ::
Postoje neke price da je doticni gore pomenuti uplatio 900 000$ za kampanju hilari klinton. Pitanje je da li to bila licna uplata ili u ime vlade RS.
izgleda da nisu samo priče, i da je cifra duplo veća
...ни ово се није знало...ово је чисто о систему самих извизника демократије...са две партије...
направише они посао и по од тога...
