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Uzi Rubin
Missile Defense and Israel’s Deterrence against a Nuclear Iran
 [Link mogu videti samo ulogovani korisnici]
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Citat:In concrete terms, this means that the Iranians will have to factor in a kill rate for the Arrow of at least 80 percent in each individual engagement. According to open literature, 14 Israel has now deployed three Arrow batteries. Each battery includes eight launchers each holding six interceptors, for a total of 144 Arrow interceptors deployed and ready to fire. In addition, Israel deploys several Patriot PAC 2 batteries, to be upgraded to PAC 3 capabilities, providing the second tier for its missile shield.15 A simple statistical analysis indicates that if every single Iranian Shahab aimed at an IAF base is engaged by one single Arrow missile, three out the six targeted bases will survive with absolute certainty and that there is a 90 percent chance that four bases will remain untouched (figure 1, curve 1). With the launching of only six interceptors, the bulk of the Arrow and Patriot missile will remain ready to face a follow-up strike. From the point of view of the aggressor, this is tantamount to failure, since enough air bases will survive to launch a massive retaliation. Iran could increase its chances of taking out the IAF on the ground by launching several Shahab missiles at each air base. Curves 2, 3, 4, and 5 in figure 1 show the chances of survival of the IAF prime bases against salvos of 12, 18, 24, and 30 Shahab missiles, respectively, when each is engaged by a single Arrow or Patriot interceptor. In the case of a massive salvo of 30 nuclear Shahabs, each engaged by one Israeli interceptor, there is a 90 percent chance that five out of the six prime IAF bases will be hit, seriously eroding Israel’s capability to launch a retaliatory strike. However, professional Iranian planners will have to take into account a multi-tier defense system that can engage each incoming Shahab twice, three times, and even more.16 Again, simple calculations show that when engaging each of the thirty incoming threats by two interceptors, Israel’s missile shield could destroy the vast majority of the incoming Shahab missiles and ensure the survival of at least three bases and possibly four, as seen in curve 6 of figure 1.
Dopuna: 17 Apr 2011 14:10
Jos 4 baterije Iron Dome
Citat:A ministerial committee approved on Wednesday (Apr. 13) the request of Defense Minister Ehud Barak to purchase four additional Iron Dome anti-rocket batteries. The batteries are expected to be operational within a year and a half and two years.
[Link mogu videti samo ulogovani korisnici]
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