Ruski problemi sa Kinom i problemi oko isporuka naoruzanja

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Rusija svake godine uvecava ukupne prihode oko izvoza naoruzanja u druge zemlje, Ruske tvornice naoruzanja imaju problema da drze tempo proizvodnje jer imaju vec narudzbe u iznosu od oko 35 milijardi $. I naravno Kinezi nastavljaju staru dobru taktiku kopiranja svega i svacega sto je dovelo do opadanja narucbi od Kine jer tamo mislie da su dovoljno jaki da sami porizvode sve, a sto im nedostaje da lijepo prekopiraju i ponude kao svoj proizvod na valjskom trzistu...sto je prevrsilo mjeru bas je prevsilo...

evo texta:

June 1, 2009: Russia announced that its defense firms currently have $35 billion in back orders, and, overall, do not have the capacity to accept any more right now. The defense industry employs nearly three million people and account for about 20 percent of industrial jobs in Russia. At the end of the Cold War in 1991, defense work was more than three times as large as it is now. It was the large size of the defense industry that played a major role in bankrupting the Soviet Union. The Russians were never quite sure (cost accounting not being a communist favorite) what proportion of their GDP was devoted to military spending, but it is estimated that it was over 20 percent. That was more than four times figure for Western nations.

A year ago, Russia expected to sell only about $6 billion worth of weapons for 2008. But sales surged in the second half of the year, with the total being over $8 billion. Russia exported $8 billion worth of weapons in 2007, and two years ago there were hopes that sales might reach $10 billion for 2008. The sudden fall in Russian arms sales comes from problems with the two largest customers; China and India.

Russian arms exports had been growing rapidly during the last few years. In 2005 Russian arms exporters had already booked orders for six billion dollars worth of sales per year through 2008. In 2004, Russian arms sales were $5.6 billion, and that went to $6 billion in 2005 and $7 billion in 2006. Russian arms sales were only $4.3 billion in 2003, and ballooned as the economies of their two biggest customers (India and China) grew larger. That, and the escalating price of oil (driven largely by increased demand from China and India), has sent international arms sales from $29 billion in 2003, to over $60 billion now. Oil rich countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, as eager to buy more weapons, with which to defend their assets.

The United States and Russia are the largest exporters of weapons, together accounting for about 70 percent of world sales. Traditionally, the U.S. sold nearly three times as much as Russia, and that ratio seems to be holding. There is more effort by the Russians to not just sell on price, but also on service and warranties. Most of the cost of a new weapon comes during the lifetime (often a decade or more) of use. In the past, Russia had a bad reputation for support, and lost a lot of those "after-market" sales of maintenance services and spare parts. The U.S. was much better in that respect, but much more expensive. Now the Russians not only have the price advantage (often half, or less, the cost of equivalent American weapons), but an improving reputation for providing good service. The Russians are also selling more high tech, and expensive, warships. For many years, warplanes comprised about two thirds of Russian sales, but now, about half the sales were for warships.

Over the last decade, about 40 percent of Russian arms exports went to China. But that is now at risk, as Russian manufacturers feud with the Chinese over stolen technology. The Chinese have been quite brazen of late, as they copy Russian military equipment, and then produce their own versions without paying for the technology. Worse, the Chinese are now offering to export these copies. The Russians are trying to work out licensing deals with the Chinese, but are not finding much interest. The Chinese say their generals are angry over how Russia sells technology to potential Chinese enemies, like India. The Russians don't understand that, as they have been selling weapons to India for decades. Russia fears that the Chinese have just decided that they don't need to buy Russian technology, or equipment, any more, and can just steal what they need.

Then again, all this could just be a lot of posturing, as the Chinese negotiate to get the best deal they can for Russian military technology. It is cheaper to build under license, because that way you get technical assistance from the developer of the technology.

India is unhappy with Russian sloppiness in handling large projects, like refurbishing an unfinished Cold War era carrier. This project has been a financial disaster for India. Worse yet, India is buying more Western (Israeli, European and American) weapons, and notes the differences in performance and service.

If Russia cannot change a lot of old habits real quick, their flourishing arms export business is going to slide back into the cellar.

Izvor:
Strategy pg.

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Nema samo Rusija "probelm" sa Indijojm i Kinom. To su dve zemlje koje sve vise rastu i postaju samostalnije. Samim time jedan od sastavnih delova tendera jeste transfer tehnologija.

Ne cudi me sto Rusija trazi vise para za neke projekte. Traze samo realnu cenu za ono sto rade. Borba na tenderima je surova i greske se ne prastaju. Kvalitet kosta.

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Jedan od velikih problema rusa jeste krađa i šverc naoružanja i vojne opreme koji najčešće završavaju kod kineza kao krajnjih naručioca - poslednji slučaj desio se pre nekoliko dana....

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Da premotamo film i odemo malo unazad u godinu 2003. Svakako zanimljiv link koji vredi pogledati u celosti.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN RUSSIA-CHINA MILITARY RELATIONS:
A REPORT ON THE AUGUST 19-23 2003 MOSCOW AEROSPACE SALON (MAKS)
http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2000_2003/reports/mair1.htm

Citat:IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY

Information gathered at MAKS indicates that the U.S. will face an even greater challenge in both defending its own forces from increasingly capable PLA systems, and in providing for Taiwan’s security. The PLA is very likely placing a high priority on acquiring new Russian systems which can especially target and attack U.S. naval forces.

New naval threats include an apparent goal to provide new naval attack Su-30MK2 fighters with multiple ISR assets to ensure the targeting of U.S. ships. The M400 locating radar, new radar satellites and possible new radar equipped strategic UAVs may all be combined with new ground-based long-range radar systems to provide an overlapping ISR picture for PLA attack platforms. It can then be expected that a common naval battle zone picture can then be used to coordinate strikes by Su-30s, multi-role J-11s, J-10s, submarines and surface ships. Land-based ballistic and cruise missiles may also be used in such naval battles.

The U.S. is also going to face greater pressure to augment its airpower assets in Asia. A PLAAF with more than 300 Su-27/30 class fighters plus hundreds of J-10 fighters, with modern ISR and weapons, means the PLAAF will no longer be a third-world airforce. The advent of modern combat jet engines also means that the PLA will be increasingly able to develop new indigenous fighters such as the “XXJ” program. China can be expected to sell what it makes, increasing threats in other areas critical to U.S. interests.

Given Washington’s global commitments, it may no longer be sufficient to purchase 300 or less F/A-22 fighters. To sustain deterrence the U.S. will require fighter platforms that are significantly superior to current or anticipated Russian or PLA fighters. It is also necessary to accelerate the introduction of advanced versions of the F/A-18E/F in order to give U.S. carrier battle groups a margin of superiority. In addition the Navy should ensure that its version of the F-35 should also be superior to anticipated threats. Just as important the U.S. should continue to develop and field superior aircraft weapons and invest in truly effective combat UAVs which can defeat or avoid expected PLA aerial threats.

Finally, the 2003 MAKS shows that the Russia-China military technical nexus is alive and growing. Despite the risks to each in this relationship, both sides are also managing to derive tangible benefits. China is getting new weapon systems faster plus a great deal of new military technology, some of which it is also mastering. Russia is getting cash to keep alive its military-technical sector and in some cases, is able to remain competitive in the global arms market. For China there remains the risk of greater dependence on new Russian technology. For Russia, there is an increasing chance that China will catch up, and threaten Russian military export markets. In addition, Russia is tied to a market which could evaporate should China’s communist system collapse. But the chances for such an event are unknown. In the meantime, MAKS 2003 has provided useful information which confirms that the Russia-China alliance is producing significant new threats to Taiwan and to American security interests in Asia.

U medjuvremenu se nisu desile male svari.

J-10 and the Rise of China's Tactical Aircraft Capabilities
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/market-insight-top.pag?docid=19506933

Novi Kineski motor Shenyang WS-10 koji je na nivou Pratt & Whitney F100, odnoslo AL-31 Saturn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_WS-10

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Evo jos malo o problemima
Citat:The failure of the deal to sell Russian IL-78 fuel tankers to India once again raised the issue of the competitive ability decrease of Russian arms and military technique on the world market.

Russia’s "Оboronka" (the defense industry) is facing yet harder problems in handling export contracts and servicing clients of earlier transactions. “It is impossible to improve the situation”, our expert concludes.

According to Russian and foreign media sources, India refused to buy Russian Il-78 fuel tanker aircraft. Indian officials motivated this decision with the non-conformity of planes to the customer’s requisitions. The spare parts supply and the after-sales service were also mentioned.

“After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia alternated its approach to the handling of the defense business. Nowadays we are facing problems with spare parts, the support of manufacturers and the delays conditioned by the centralized structure of their defense corporations”, Fali Homi Major, the Commander-in-Chief of Indian Air Force told RIA Novosti. Instead of Russian planes India is likely to buy Airbus A330 MRTT manufactured by the European company EADS.

This is not the first juicy scandal connected with Russia’s defense exports. “The most well-known case is the scandal with Algeria when they refused to take the already procured MiG aircraft and sent them back to us. There are plenty of scandals with India in relation to various types of arms. It concerns naval weapons in the first place”, said Mr. Alexander Khramchihin of the Institute of Political and Defense Analysis in an interview to Bigness.ru.

Recollecting the year 2007 with the outbreak of scandal with 15 MiG-29CMT fighters shipped to Algeria . It appeared that the jet fighters, which were sold as brand new, contained “second-hand” parts. According to some information, the units from the planes with several hundreds of flight hours were used when assembling those aircraft.

One can recollect habitual claims from India which is one of our key partners in the field of defense cooperation. We remind the endless complaints with The Gorshkov aircraft carrier which was designed for India. The budget for its refurbishment was mounting endlessly which enormously irritated our client. Perplexity was also connected with the problems in the modernization of the ship.

Technical problems haunted Russia in the transfer of frigates, which India ordered from Russia . Air defense missile systems stubbornly failed to hit air targets. In many scandal situations (e.g. in the case of airplanes returned by Algeria) some observers incriminate the international backroom deal.

However, politically motivated relations with India could only take place in times of the Cold War, but definitely not today. “Earlier India oriented itself to Russia during the Cold War, and there were truly political factors there”, says A.Khramchihin.


“Today India can buy weapons from whoever it wants to. The market also became more abundant than before. In his words everything in this sphere is explained by the quality including India’s denial. This is the signal to us that we produce low-quality weapons”, he affirms.

Formerly, competitive advantage of the Soviet military technique was in its low price (sometimes even dumping), its simplicity and reliability. However, the Russian military hardware, still being simple, started losing its former reliability. Nevertheless, the prices on it were growing against all odds.

The answer is in the high inflation rise of the defense sphere surpassing the average price growth in the industry as well as the degradation of the military-industrial complex. Whereas the amount of the state defense contracts and foreign contracts is growing, the national defense industry still fails to regain its capability to tackle the large-scale production of military equipment.

“Old factories which produced hardware in sufficient quantities and quality in the course of many years are not coping with the assignment of today”, said Mr. Ruslan Pukhov, of the Center of Strategy and Technology Analysis told Bigness.ru.

The staff deficit still persists – “money is there but people are not”. ”The situation is impossible to amend”, grumbles A.Kramchihin.

If the situation does not change (according to military experts it will be next to impossible to reverse it) Russia will be losing its share in the market of arms and military equipment. These tendencies have already started to take shape. Thus. according to studies of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Bonn International Converse Center (BICC) Russia is reducing its share on the world arms market.

The turnover on the world arms market in 2004-2008 has increased by 21 percent as compared to previous five-year period (1999-2003). At that time the increase in sales of Russian arms was only 14 percent. The figures testify that our share in the arms market started to curtail.

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Jos jedan Update koliko se trosi novca za naoruzanje, moze ici u ovu temu...

The Mighty Merchants Of Death
June 13, 2009: The top ten defense manufacturers on the planet (Boeing, BAE, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Raytheon, EADS, L-3, Finmeccanica, Thales) had sales of nearly $200 billion last year. Five of those firms were American (accounting for 63 percent of sales), with the others being European. Russian and Chinese firms are growing, but all together account for less sales than the largest U.S. producer (Boeing, at $30.4 billion). Most of the production goes for the nations own forces. But over $60 billion in weapons are exported each year.
The United States and Russia are the largest exporters of weapons, together accounting for about 70 percent of world sales. Traditionally, the U.S. sold nearly three times as much as Russia, and that ratio seems to be holding. There is more effort by the Russians to not just sell on price, but also on service and warranties. Most of the cost of a new weapon comes during the lifetime (often a decade or more) of use. In the past, Russia had a bad reputation for support, and lost a lot of those "after-market" sales of maintenance services and spare parts. The U.S. was much better in that respect, but much more expensive. Now the Russians not only have the price advantage (often half, or less, the cost of equivalent American weapons), but an improving reputation for providing good service. The Russians are also selling more high tech, and expensive, warships. For many years, warplanes comprised about two thirds of Russian sales, but now, about half the sales were for warships.

Over the last decade, about 40 percent of Russian arms exports went to China. But that is now at risk, as Russian manufacturers feud with the Chinese over stolen technology. The Chinese have been quite brazen of late, as they copy Russian military equipment, and then produce their own versions without paying for the technology. Worse, the Chinese are now offering to export these copies. The Russians are trying to work out licensing deals with the Chinese, but are not finding much interest. The Chinese say their generals are angry over how Russia sells technology to potential Chinese enemies, like India. The Russians don't understand that attitude, as they have been selling weapons to India for decades. Russia fears that the Chinese have just decided that they don't need to buy Russian technology, or equipment, any more, and can just steal what they need.

Then again, all this could just be a lot of posturing, as the Chinese negotiate to get the best deal they can for Russian military technology. It is cheaper to build under license, because that way you get technical assistance from the developer of the technology.

India is unhappy with Russian sloppiness in handling large projects, like refurbishing an unfinished Cold War era aircraft carrier. Worse yet, India is buying more Western (Israeli, European and American) weapons, and notes the differences in performance and service.

The rest of the world is also demanding higher quality weapons, and more value for the money spent. Russia and China sell to the value crowd, which is a shrinking market. The big importers are India, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, South Korea and Venezuela. China used to be one of the biggest importers, but now produce most of their own weapons. India is trying to keep up with China, but has not got as large a defense industry. Israel is a tiny country surrounded by enemies, and imports largely with the aid of American aid. Egypt and Pakistan also benefit from American subsidies, which are paid to obtain diplomatic and military cooperation. Saudi Arabia has lots of oil money, and want to protect it. South Korea has a booming economy, and a dangerous neighbor (North Korea). Venezuela has oil money, and a leader who likes to buy weapons he doesn't need.


@Startegy Pg.

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Russian, Chinese businesspeople sign 40 contracts worth $3 bln
http://en.rian.ru/business/20090616/155267195.html

Dopuna: 17 Jun 2009 11:49

Russian, Chinese leaders to talk energy, economy in Kremlin
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090617/155273722.html